Summary of #37 - Hugo Kruger: “I’ve seen how people can fall for their own models”

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

Hugo Kruger, a structural engineer with a background in nuclear energy, oil and gas industries, and renewables, discusses various topics related to energy transitions, resources, renewable energy, and climate change in this podcast. He advocates for nuclear energy in the energy transition and questions the practicality of electric vehicles and a hydrogen transition. Kruger believes that adapting to climate change rather than decarbonizing the world simultaneously is a more proportionate solution and expresses his skepticism towards climate models and the quasi-religious nature of the environmental movement. He also highlights the importance of poverty and development for African leaders rather than focusing on climate change.

00:00:00 In this section of the podcast, Tom Nelson speaks with Hugo Kruger, a structural engineer with a background in nuclear energy, oil and gas industries, and renewables such as offshore wind. Kruger explains the importance of energy density and defines energy as a derived constant. He shares how the Industrial Revolution began in Britain due to its access to energy, which allowed for industrialization and the freeing of slaves. Kruger argues for the importance of nuclear energy in the energy transition and clarifies the distinction between energy, power, and electricity generation.
00:05:00 In this section, the speaker discusses energy transitions and the availability of resources, stating that we have more resources available now than at any point in history, and access to resources has gotten better. He argues that resources should be thought of as a flux and not a stock, like the water cycle, and that the means to extract resources matters more than the amount in the ground. He also discusses the impact of modern medicine and argues that it was not antibiotics or vaccines that brought down disease, but rather the five networks of transportation, electrification, water and sanitation, and telecommunications. He cautions against the perception that the real world has changed dramatically in the last 30 years, stating that while it may be true in the digital world, materials like bitumen, cement, and steel are still essential for building infrastructure.
00:10:00 In this section, Hugo Kruger talks about the myth that development leads to deforestation and argues that the majority of The Greening occurred in China, India, and North America due to denser forms of energy, which allow nature to recover. He explains that fossil fuels are preferred not only for generating energy but also for transporting it, as they lose less energy in their process. As for electrical vehicles, Kruger questions their practicality, citing an example of the London police struggling to respond to crime due to their batteries constantly going flat. He also dismisses the idea of a hydrogen transition, pointing out that it requires a massive amount of nuclear reactors to generate enough hydrogen for just one airport, and that hydrogen has a problem with volume density.
00:15:00 In this section, Hugo Kruger discusses energy density, the cost of electricity in Europe, renewable energy, and the consumption vs. production of energy. He explains that while solar panels and offshore wind have fallen in price, household electricity in Denmark and Germany remains the most expensive in Europe. France, which heavily relies on nuclear energy, has the cheapest household electricity. Kruger believes that wind and solar are oversold and not equivalent to nuclear, but can be useful for manufacturing during the daytime. He also questions the logic of shutting down nuclear power plants in Germany and the Netherlands and instead reverting back to coal. Finally, Kruger highlights Nigeria's growing population and the need to balance climate goals with energy access for developing countries.
00:20:00 In this section, Hugo Kruger discusses the demographic transition model and the future of energy consumption based on population projections. He argues that the Western world's actions regarding energy consumption are becoming increasingly irrelevant because the majority of the world's population will soon reside in Africa and Asia, where they are turning to coal and nuclear energy regardless of the West's objections. He points out that solar and wind energy are still a tiny portion of global energy consumption, and getting to net-zero emissions would require a "pack of unicorns." As an engineer with a background in nuclear, Kruger questions the correlation between CO2 levels and temperature and notes that there was no correlation in the past between the two.
00:25:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the relationship between CO2 and global warming, as well as the accuracy and relevance of temperature recordings. He argues that while doubling CO2 in the atmosphere should result in some warming, the rest would come from other natural forces and that there is a lack of evidence to support positive feedback as it seems to violate energy conservation laws. The speaker questions the accuracy of the global mean temperature anomaly and its relevance to the actual temperatures people experience on the ground. He also challenges the significance of the hockey stick and RCP 8.5 scenarios, stating that the panic associated with them is often exaggerated and not based on scientific data.
00:30:00 In this section, Hugo Kruger discusses how humans have followed prophecies in the past with disastrous consequences and how following unrealistic climate pathways may lead to similar outcomes. He talks about the Zulus, who did not slaughter their cattle based on a young girl's prophecy and were the first people to defeat the British in battle with Spears. Kruger also explains that the warming we are supposed to panic about cannot be picked up on a household thermometer, and suggests decarbonizing through nuclear power as the most practical low-hanging fruit in all of this. He cites France, which produces 0.02 of the world CO2 and has decarbonized the fastest, due to building a bunch of reactors quickly, an approach that paid off despite high costs. Overall, Kruger advocates a common-sense approach to climate and energy.
00:35:00 In this section, Hugo Kruger criticizes the World Bank and IMF policy of preventing African countries from building fossil fuel plants. He argues that poverty and development should be the primary concerns for African leaders rather than climate change. Kruger notes that African leaders are becoming increasingly skeptical of Western policies because they view them as neocolonialism. Many African leaders have started to voice out their opinions, with Senegal's president suggesting that they will not pay for carbon they do not use in Europe. Furthermore, Kruger points out that climate change should not be the main concern for people who are struggling to survive with no food, electricity, or running water.
00:40:00 In this section, Kruger discusses the state of France's nuclear power and the politics behind phasing it out. He explains how politicians, under the influence of environmentalism, set unachievable targets to phase out nuclear power. Kruger notes that although public opinion is now in favor of nuclear power, France may need renewables to compensate for the shortage caused by the aging nuclear fleet. Furthermore, he highlights that engineers who believe in nuclear power are leaving the industry while the technology deteriorates. Kruger argues that the fossil fuel industry is not against renewables and nuclear power as they can benefit from geopolitical shocks in the system.
00:45:00 In this section, Hugo Kruger expresses his skepticism towards climate models and their ability to perform accurately. He points out that while he has not evaluated the models himself, he is skeptical of the assumptions that are put into them, such as fudging them to a known temperature record. He discusses the issue of aerosols and how they cool the planet but are difficult to predict. Furthermore, he believes that the political economy plays a significant role in the energy sector, with interests funding propaganda to capture or regulate markets. Finally, he talks about South Africa's Sasol, which converts coal to oil, as an example of how domestic energy production can be achieved. Overall, Kruger believes that adapting to climate change rather than decarbonizing the world simultaneously is a more proportionate solution.
00:50:00 In this section, Hugo Kruger discusses his skepticism towards the metrics being thrown around in the energy industry, such as the social cost of carbon and subsidies for fossil fuels. He believes that there should be no social cost of carbon and that more CO2 in the atmosphere is actually a benefit. Kruger also expresses his support for low CO2 technologies, such as using solar panels for desalination in areas with lots of sun, but is cautious about blindly investing in renewables without considering environmental and safety concerns. Additionally, Kruger critiques Germany's approach to renewable energy and labels it as "religious fanatical."
00:55:00 In this section of the video, Hugo Kruger discusses the quasi-religious nature of the environmental movement and the fanaticism that has developed around it. He mentions that he became interested in this topic after a discussion with colleagues about global warming and was surprised by the emotional response he received when he questioned the science. Kruger also expresses concern for the way children are being propagandized into the movement and that they are no better than past regimes like the Nazis or Mao's red rebellion. He believes that no kid should be losing sleep over this and that the fanaticism of the movement is a cause for worry.

01:00:00 - 01:00:00

Hugo Kruger delves into the use of propaganda to shape people's beliefs and perceptions of climate change, highlighting that propaganda serves to discourage dialogue rather than persuade them to adopt a certain viewpoint. He argues that the political narrative surrounding climate change has taken precedence over scientific evidence, which is exemplified through the use of scientists as an authoritative source. He calls for the need to expose this propaganda to eradicate the narrative and enable more transparent discussions surrounding climate change.