Summary of Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method | Tom Nelson Pod #202

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

In the "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method" YouTube video, Tom Nelson introduces his guest, Tom Kurz, a scientist concerned about climate change's impact on his community. Kurz shares his skepticism towards the consensus on climate change and the diversion of resources from other environmental and conservation efforts. He criticizes the focus on reducing carbon footprints over pollution footprints and the negative consequences of green energy infrastructure. Kurz also questions the prioritization of climate change theory over data, using examples like the Ottawa Society's support for windmills that harm birds and the decline of endangered species during cooling temperatures. The speakers discuss various scientists, including Nobel Prize winners, who express skepticism about the climate crisis and the consensus on man-made global warming. They also challenge the attribution of global warming to man and the media narrative of increasing extreme weather conditions. The video explores historical data, such as the Earth getting greener and the cyclical pattern of sea level rise, and the benefits of adaptation to climate change. Criticisms of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the hockey stick graph are also discussed, with arguments of bias and overlooking contradictory evidence. Overall, the speakers emphasize the importance of examining scientific evidence and data to form an informed opinion on climate change.

00:00:00 In this section of the podcast, Tom Nelson introduces his guest, Tom Kurz, and shares his background in science and his personal journey into learning about climate change. Kurz expresses his concern over the issue and the impact it has had on his community, particularly on those who are distressed about it. He mentions how he has spent time researching the topic and writing a paper, but found that not everything he read on the internet was true. Kurz also shares his beliefs about the importance of protecting the environment and preserving nature for future generations. However, he expresses concern that the focus on climate change has diverted resources and attention away from other important environmental and conservation efforts. He points to the inflation reduction act and foreign aid as examples of funds being diverted to climate change initiatives, and questions whether these funds could have been used more effectively elsewhere. Kurz also mentions the Ozone Society as an example of the diversion of conservation efforts.
00:05:00 In this section of the podcast, Tom Kurz discusses the contradiction between the Ottawa Society's mission to protect birds and their support for windmills, which kill hundreds of thousands of birds each year. Kurz questions the society's prioritization of climate change theory over data, pointing out that endangered species have been declining as temperatures have cooled, not warmed. He also shares an example from Sri Lanka, where the elimination of synthetic fertilizers to improve the country's Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) score led to significant crop yield declines and food scarcities. Kurz argues that the focus on reducing carbon footprints, rather than pollution footprints, can have negative consequences and that the true issue should be addressing pollution.
00:10:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method," Tom Nelson discusses the misallocation of funds towards reducing CO2 emissions instead of addressing pollution, the high cost of renewable energy, and the negative impact on the poor and developing countries. He also criticizes the destruction of natural beauty caused by green energy infrastructure. Nelson expresses skepticism towards the consensus on climate change and encourages individuals to examine the data and scientific evidence for themselves. He shares that he was shocked to find that many scientists disagree with the notion of a climate crisis and that the theories need to be proven by data.
00:15:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method," the speaker discusses various scientists, including Nobel Prize winners, who have expressed skepticism about the climate crisis and the consensus that man-made global warming is dangerous. He mentions Ivar Giaever, John Clausen, William Happer, and Richard Lindzen, among others, who have publicly stated that there is no climate crisis or that man's contribution to warming is minimal. The speaker also criticizes the Cook study, which Obama referenced to claim that 97% of scientists agree on the reality and danger of man-made climate change, for bias towards publishing papers that support the climate crisis narrative. The speaker argues that the consensus is not overwhelming and that most of the warming is not caused by man.
00:20:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method," the speaker discusses the attribution of global warming to natural variation based on peer-reviewed studies. He mentions nine such papers that suggest 40 to 87% of the warming since 1850 can be attributed to natural variation. The speaker also challenges the media narrative that extreme weather conditions, such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, and wildfires, are becoming more severe, citing data that shows a decline in the intensity and frequency of hurricanes and tornadoes. He explains that severe storms are caused by the collision of warm and cold air masses, and global warming has not evenly distributed temperature changes, which is moderating the temperature contrast and resulting in fewer severe storms. The speaker also notes that heat waves have significantly decreased and that droughts have declined as temperatures have warmed due to the atmosphere holding more moisture and leading to more rain.
00:25:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method | Tom Nelson Pod #202," Tom Kurz discusses how the Earth is getting greener, not browner, as evidenced by satellite data. Plants use their stomata to breathe in CO2 and lose water, and as CO2 levels increase, plants close their stomata to conserve water, becoming more drought-resistant. Studies suggest that plants use less water when CO2 levels are higher. Additionally, the increase in CO2 has reduced fire risk and allowed soil to be moister, leading to fewer fires. Contrary to popular belief, there has been no significant increase in wildfires, floods, or other climate crisis trends. The rate of sea level rise, which has been about a foot per century for the past 150 years, is not a crisis, and the data shows that it oscillates with the Atlantic Ocean's temperature cycle.
00:30:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method," the speaker challenges the notion that sea level rise and extinctions are directly linked to climate change. He points out that historical data shows sea level rise follows a cyclical pattern and cannot be extrapolated indefinitely. Regarding extinctions, the speaker cites a decrease in documented extinctions over the last 100 years, with most historical extinctions occurring during colder periods. He also mentions that polar bear populations have increased and that the Great Barrier Reef has experienced record coral growth in recent years. The speaker also notes that deaths from cold outnumber those from heat and that climate-related deaths have declined significantly since 1920.
00:35:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method," Tom Nelson discusses the benefits of adaptation to climate change using examples such as warning systems, better heating and cooling systems, and increased agricultural productivity due to CO2 emissions. He also challenges the notion that fossil fuels should not be used for energy production, as they have enabled many of these adaptations. Nelson also mentions the "greening" of the Earth, which has led to increased plant growth and agricultural productivity, and criticizes climate alarmists for ignoring this positive trend. He uses data from satellite imagery and scientific studies to support his arguments. Additionally, Nelson explains how the ratio of oxygen isotopes in water can be used as a proxy for past water temperatures, allowing scientists to study historical climate change through analyzing stalactites, sediment samples, and ice cores.
00:40:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method," Tom Nelson discusses the use of proxies, such as Greenland ice cores and sediment samples from the Pacific Ocean, to examine climate cycles. He explains that these cycles include warm and cold periods, with examples like the medieval warm period and the little ice age. These cycles correspond with 1,000-year solar cycles, as seen in the ratio of carbon isotopes. However, CO2 levels were lower during the warmest period, the Holocene optimum, suggesting that solar cycles may play a role in climate change beyond CO2 levels. Other proxies, such as tide gauges and glacier records, also support these findings.
00:45:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method | Tom Nelson Pod #202," the speaker provides evidence of warmer periods in history, such as the Medieval Warm Period, by discussing various indicators like the growth of certain crops in regions that are currently too cold, the presence of specific insects, and historical accounts of early cherry blossoms and vine cultivation. He also mentions the existence of cold periods, like the Greek Dark Ages and the Little Ice Age, which were marked by tree line shifts, glacier advancements, and widespread crop failures. The speaker emphasizes that these historical periods demonstrate the importance of favorable climate conditions for societal advancement and population growth.
00:50:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method," Tom Nelson discusses the historical impact of climate on civilizations, arguing that both extreme cold and warmth have significant consequences. He references various historical periods, such as the Greek Dark Ages and the Roman collapse, where climate played a role in food scarcity, migrations, and societal decline. Nelson also mentions the Mayan civilization and the Little Ice Age, which led to crop failures and societal collapse. He contrasts these historical periods with the current time of prosperity and the positive economic impact of climate change up to 1.7 degrees since 1850. The speaker also criticizes the IPCC's assessment report three and the infamous hockey stick graph, which has been criticized for statistical and proxy data issues.
00:55:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method," Tom Nelson discusses criticisms of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the hockey stick graph. He mentions a disagreement among scientists in thePages 2K group, who published an alternative history showing warmer temperatures in the past that contradicted the IPCC's findings. Nelson argues that the IPCC is biased and only reported data supporting their hypothesis, while overlooking contradictory evidence. He also challenges the IPCC's argument that the medieval warm period was a regional event, pointing out that the North Pole is currently warming much faster than the South Pole, and that historical data shows that CO2 levels were much lower during warmer periods in the past. Nelson concludes that CO2 is not the primary driver of temperature changes, and that the oceans have a significant influence on climate.

01:00:00 - 01:45:00

In the YouTube video "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method," Tom Kurz and Tom Nelson discuss various theories and findings related to climate change. They challenge the common belief that greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, are the primary drivers of ocean warming. Instead, they propose that water absorbs most of the heat in the ocean and that CO2 has a cooling effect on the ocean. They also discuss the role of cosmic rays, solar cycles, and aerosols in climate patterns and cloud formation. Kurz invites scientists to examine his theories and encourages open dialogue to discover the truth about climate change.

01:00:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method," Tom Nelson discusses the correlation between CO2 concentration and temperature change. He points out that the temperature change between the ice ages, which was approximately 11 degrees, cannot be explained by CO2 radiative forcing from a 120 parts per million change in CO2. Instead, Tom suggests that CO2 follows temperature changes, with colder water absorbing more CO2 and warmer water expelling it. He also talks about solar and climate cycles, explaining that cosmic rays, which come from stars exploding and collide with carbon and nitrogen molecules, can influence climate patterns. The correlation between cosmic rays and climate cycles is supported by the fact that periods of low cosmic ray flux correspond with warmer periods, such as the medieval warm period, and high cosmic ray flux with cooler periods, like the little Ice Age. Tom also mentions the Arctic amplification, where the Arctic is warming much faster than other parts of the world, and suggests that ocean currents transporting solar heat to the Arctic could be the cause.
01:05:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method | Tom Nelson Pod #202," Tom Kurz discusses the role of oceans in climate change, specifically in the Northern Hemisphere. He explains how the Meridional Overturning Circulation transports heat from the sun-heated oceans to regions like Greenland and Europe, contributing to warming trends in those areas. The Gulf Stream and other circulations also play a role in this process. Warm water in the North Pacific and North Atlantic is a major contributor to global warming. Kurz also touches upon the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, which has shifted from a cold period to a warm one, and is expected to return to a cold period around 2034. The ocean's role as a solar collector, absorbing 90% of the world's solar energy, is highlighted, with clouds being a significant factor in regulating ocean temperatures.
01:10:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method," Tom Kurz proposes a theory suggesting that CO2 has a cooling effect on the ocean instead of a warming one. He explains that most people are unaware that the oceans are on average 2° warmer than the atmosphere. According to the principle of thermodynamics, warmth always moves from a warmer object to a cooler one, and the oceans continuously absorb heat from the sun. Kurz argues that the atmosphere does not directly transfer heat from the atmosphere to the oceans but instead slows the cooling process. He further explains that the atmosphere warms the ocean through radiation, conduction, and convection, but each of these methods can only heat the very surface of the ocean, leading to cooling from evaporation. Evaporation is a powerful cooling mechanism that takes energy out of the atmosphere in the form of latent heat. CO2 can only warm the ocean in the 13 to 17 Micron infrared Spectrum, and most of the heat is absorbed in the water within the first 100 microns, which is lost to evaporation. Conduction and convection are poor heat transfer mechanisms in water, and even if there is any conduction, it only occurs on the surface, leading to evaporation. Kurz suggests that evaporation takes more heat out of the ocean than is added by a warmer ocean, and if the atmosphere is warmed by CO2, it does not cool the ocean. He also presents data that supports his theory, such as the sea skin of the ocean always being cooler than it is just under the surface, indicating that evaporation is stronger than the combination of radiation conduction and convection.
01:15:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method," Tom Nelson discusses the role of evaporation in ocean temperature changes and challenges the common belief that greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, are the primary drivers of ocean warming. He suggests that water, not CO2, absorbs most of the heat in the ocean's spectrum, and the only effective area where CO2 can radiate heat is in the 13 to 17 micron spectrum, which overlaps with water. As a result, most of the heat absorbed at the ocean surface is between water and CO2, making it insignificant how much more water or CO2 is added to the surface. The heating occurs high in the troposphere where temperatures are colder, and water vapor condenses, allowing CO2 to make a difference. Kurz also explains that the increase in CO2's ability to raise temperature declines dramatically, requiring a significant increase in CO2 concentrations to achieve small temperature increases.
01:20:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method," Tom Nelson discusses the impact of doubling CO2 levels on global temperature. He explains that the difference in radiation between 400 and 800 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 is only about 3 watts per square meter, which is less than 1% of the total radiation. Using the Boltzmann constant, this equates to approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius of warming. Nelson also mentions that climate alarmist Brad Marston's calculations yield a similar result of around one degree of warming. Despite this, Nelson does not consider this a climate crisis, as it would take over 150 years to reach 800 ppm at the current rate of fossil fuel emissions. Furthermore, the estimated remaining fossil fuel reserves would only lead to a temperature increase of 2.2 degrees Celsius. Nelson argues that the climate crisis narrative is based on a theory that assumes a threefold amplification of warming by water vapor, but this assumption relies on the incorrect assumptions that relative humidity and the climate feedback principle will remain constant.
01:25:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method | Tom Nelson Pod #202," Tom Kurz discusses the inaccuracies in climate models regarding water vapor feedback and cloud impact. He explains that despite the assumption in climate models that relative humidity declines lead to more warming, the data shows the opposite. The chart presented in the video demonstrates that relative humidity has actually declined over time, but this does not matter since all greenhouse gases are saturated, and water vapor does not add more energy in the higher troposphere. Kurz also mentions a paper by Soden et al. in the Journal of Climate, which suggests a water vapor feedback of approximately 1.8 m²K for each degree increase in temperature, but this is easily outweighed by the negative feedback of clouds. The IPCC's climate models assume that 1.7 watts per square meter is radiated out to space for each degree temperature increase, but satellites show that this is not correct, and there is actually 2.2 watts per square meter. Additionally, clouds reflect more solar energy back into space than the models account for, which further contributes to the discrepancy between the models and reality. Kurz also discusses Gerald Pollock's research on the h302 molecule, which is formed when water evaporates and has a negative charge. This discovery challenges the current understanding of water's role in the climate system.
01:30:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method," the speaker discusses the role of aerosols, specifically sulfates, in cloud formation. He explains that negatively charged aerosols and water vapor repel each other in the atmosphere, preventing them from sticking together and forming clouds. However, positively charged protons from cosmic rays can act as glue to bind these negatively charged particles together, forming larger aerosols that can act as cloud nuclei. The speaker also mentions experiments conducted by astrophysicist Henrik Svensmark, who discovered that sulfate ions could grow into cloud-nucleating aerosols in the presence of protons. Despite initial skepticism, Svensmark's findings have been supported by subsequent research, including observations of reduced cloud formation during solar flares when cosmic rays are suppressed.
01:35:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method," the speaker discusses various studies that suggest a correlation between cosmic rays, solar cycles, and climate changes. One study using stalactites from Oman revealed a close match between cosmic ray flux and temperature. Another study analyzing calcium carbonate shells found that temperature drops every 140 million years, and cosmic rays increase during the same period due to the Earth passing through spiral arms of the Milky Way with high supernova activity. The speaker also mentions that climate crisis apologists have overlooked this correlation, which is not included in the IPCC report. The speaker then explains that during cold periods, such as ice ages, there are limited water vapor and aerosols, making it difficult for cosmic rays to form clouds, despite an increase in protons. Additionally, a study from 2002 to 2005 showed an excellent correlation between cosmic rays, low cloud formation, and temperature, but this correlation declined in the early 2000s due to a significant decrease in aerosols. The speaker concludes by noting that the current solar cycle (Solar Cycle 25) is much lower than the previous one, and the modern maximum, and this could potentially lead to cooling temperatures.
01:40:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method," Tom Nelson discusses the solar cycle theory of climate change with Tom Kurz. Kurz explains that strong solar cycles result in solar maxima, while weak cycles lead to solar minima. He references historical periods such as the Little Ice Age and the Dal minimum, which were characterized by weak solar cycles and colder weather. Kurz also mentions the work of Valentina Zharkova, who has studied the Sun's magnetic fields and their impact on solar cycles. Zharkova's research suggests that the upcoming solar cycle 26, expected around 2030, will be similar to the weak solar cycle of the 19th century, leading to cooler temperatures and potentially colder weather in the 2030s. Despite this, Kurz maintains that there is no climate crisis and that climate models overlook the cooling impact of clouds on oceans and the unproven water vapor feedback theory. He concludes that global warming will continue but will be moderated by cooling trends, and that investments should focus on adapting to the environment, eliminating pollution, and fighting poverty rather than preventing climate change.
01:45:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Tom Kurz: Climate Change Examined by the Scientific Method | Tom Nelson Pod #202," Tom Kurz expresses his hope that scientists will examine his theories regarding the cooling effect of CO2 on the ocean and the warming of the atmosphere. He suggests that the opinions of Sven Markus, Shabib, and Pollock could complement each other and lead to a beautiful theory when all pieces are put together. Kurz invites anyone with input to contact him through his email address, which he has included in the presentation, as he is dedicated to discovering the truth.