Summary of Clive Best: Long term future of humanity | Tom Nelson Pod #94

00:00:00 - 00:35:00

Clive Best shares his background in physics and his work in nuclear fusion, weather data, and climate change. He discusses the politicization of science in the IPCC and the importance of understanding the Earth's unique atmosphere and CO2's greenhouse effect. Best explains the logarithmic radiated-forcing curve and the complicated workings of CO2's greenhouse effect, emphasizing the necessity of understanding the quantum lines of emission from CO2. He also highlights the limitations and issues with current methods of data collection and homogenization in climate modeling. Best argues that renewable energy alone cannot sustain society due to the unpredictability of wind power and the need for consistent and reliable energy, with nuclear power being the only solution. Best raises the possibility of another Ice Age and emphasizes the need to use CO2 as a thermostat to prevent it.

• 00:00:00 In this section, Clive Best discusses his background in physics and his work at CERN and the European Joint Research Center. He talks about his fascination with nuclear fusion and the potential for it to solve the world's energy problems if it can be made to work. He also briefly mentions his work with weather data and calculating temperatures, noting a small increase in temperature over time but nothing significant.
• 00:05:00 In this section, Clive Best discusses how his work with a meteor monitoring system led to the creation of a private company that monitored Chinese websites for emerging diseases, which could have served as an early warning of the COVID-19 outbreak. He then delves into his 14-year-long study of climate change and how the political nature of the IPCC has led to science becoming too politicized. He explains the importance of the Earth's unique atmosphere and how it is different from other planets, attributing the low CO2 levels to cyan bacteria that managed to solve photosynthesis and kickstart the cycle of life on Earth, keeping the surface conducive for life to thrive. He also discusses the complicated workings of CO2's greenhouse effect and the necessity of understanding the quantum lines of emission from CO2.
• 00:10:00 In this section, Clive Best explains the effects of doubling CO2 on the Earth's surface. CO2 and water vapors have equal impacts on keeping the Earth's surface warmer than usual. Radiated forcing, which is the rise in temperature of the Earth's surface, causes a slight temperature increase in the surface area when the atmosphere is on it. Best shows a radiated-forcing curve that is logarithmic and has a one-and-a-half-degree increase in temperature caused by double CO2 concentration. The increase in temperature is not dangerous enough to affect life on Earth, but the assumption of positive feedbacks and a climate cycle on clouds may result in dangerous temperature increases. Unfortunately, measuring the temperature varies throughout time, and there's no data from the past that can be used to verify this assumption.
• 00:15:00 In this section, Clive Best discusses the limitations and issues with the current methods of data collection and homogenization in climate modeling. The process of homogenization involves making sure that all workstations behave nicely and creating a global average, but this can lead to biases and errors. Additionally, homogenization algorithms can be flawed as they try to reconcile distant weather stations. Best suggests alternative methods of calculating these averages like using a cosmahedral b clinic to generate a mesh around the earth. Nonetheless, he acknowledges that there still is much work to be done in climate modeling to limit systematic errors.
• 00:20:00 In this section, Clive Best discusses the use of anomalies to understand the temperature of the Earth, as the models disagree about what the average value should be. He shows the actual temperature data and how most models do not agree on what the temperature is, making anomalies important. He also examines the issue of global warming and emphasizes how it is not as bad as it is projected to be in the media, as small temperature increases are hardly noticeable. However, Clive believes that cutting emissions to zero and relying solely on renewable energy is not feasible, as it would require abandoning modern agriculture and transportation systems, which would be impossible to do with wind turbines and solar panels.
• 00:25:00 In this section, Clive Best discusses the potential for a devastating Ice Age and the long-term energy needs of humanity. Best notes that humanity needs a "better plan" because relying on solar panels is not a practical long-term solution. An Ice Age would be catastrophic for civilization, as it would "kill off civilization." Best suggests that we don't fully understand how Ice Ages are formed, and there is no way to know when the next one will occur. Best argues that global warming is not the true problem but rather "a symptom." Instead, we need to focus on finding a solution to help maintain our energy needs and avoid an energy crisis as oil reserves deplete.
• 00:30:00 In this section, Clive Best discusses how renewable energy alone cannot sustain Britain due to the country's climate and the unpredictability of wind power. The government has committed to a Net Zero Greenhouse Effects by 2050, but it has realized that relying on wind energy is erratic and unreliable. Therefore, nuclear power, biomass, and carbon capture and storage, with maybe a bit of renewable energy, are needed to get through the winter. Best claims that renewable energy cannot renew itself and that it will only last for 20 years before needing replacement, which is unsustainable. Thus, the future mostly lies in nuclear power since it is the only consistent and reliable source, bringing up France's decision in the 1980s to construct three gigawatt power stations to solve the problem. Best believes that civilization will thrive or disappear depending on the choices we make now, and renewable energy is not the solution.
• 00:35:00 In this section, Clive Best discusses the possibility of another Ice Age and states that it is likely to happen in the next 10,000 years unless we manage to use CO2 as a thermostat to prevent it. He explains that the Earth has been much warmer in the past and at its coldest currently, and he predicts that the Earth's temperature could go up by one to two degrees by the year 2100. Best also speculates that there may be some more 30-year periods during which there's no warming or cooling.