Summary of Qing-Bin Lu on CO2 and CFCs: Gradual cooling ahead? | Tom Nelson Pod #156

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

Qing-Bin Lu, a professor at the University of Waterloo, discusses his research on climate change and the role of CFCs and CO2 in this section. Lu presents his observations and publications, suggesting a gradual cooling trend in most of this century. He questions the prediction made in a 1967 paper that increasing CO2 levels would cause a temperature increase followed by a decrease in the stratosphere. Lu emphasizes the need to distinguish between natural and human effects of climate change, acknowledges the complexity of predicting temperature change, and highlights the importance of considering multiple factors in studying the greenhouse effect.

00:00:00 In this section, Qing-Bin Lu, a professor in the department of physics and astronomy at the University of Waterloo, discusses his research on climate change and the role of CFCs and CO2. Lu shares that he believes there will be a gradual cooling trend in most of this century based on his observations and publications. He explains that his work focuses on the impact of CFCs on climate change, rather than CO2, and presents comprehensive observation data sets to support this claim. Lu also mentions the contributions of previous Nobel laureates in physics who developed climate models based on CO2, and discusses the relationship between CO2 concentration and temperature in different layers of the atmosphere.
00:05:00 In this section, Qing-Bin Lu discusses the predictions and observations regarding the impact of greenhouse gases on climate change. He refers to a graph from a 1967 paper by Dr. Manabe and Wetherald, which suggests that increasing CO2 levels would cause a surface temperature increase followed by a decrease in the stratosphere temperature. Lu questions the truth behind this prediction and presents his own observations later on. He also mentions a document from the Swedish Academy of Science, which acknowledges the contributions of Dr. Manabe and Crossman in understanding Earth's climate. However, Lu points out that the document doesn't explicitly mention CO2 as the major greenhouse gas, which seems inconsistent with the previous statements. Lu finds this discrepancy strange and raises doubts about the evidence supporting CO2 as the main driver of global warming.
00:10:00 In this section of the interview, Qing-Bin Lu discusses a pedagogy that doesn't mention CO2 and instead focuses on distinguishing between natural and human effects of climate change. Lu also mentions the American Physical Society becoming politicized and shares his agreement with the idea that nothing in science is incontrovertible. Lu then presents a graphic showing that climate change since the late 20th century is mainly caused by human activity, which aligns with his own research.
00:15:00 In this section, Qing-Bin Lu discusses the correlation between solar intensity and temperature increase. He mentions that multiple datasets indicate that the temperature increase since the 1970s is primarily due to human activity, rather than natural effects. Lu explains that even though some scientists argue that solar effects could contribute to warming, the data shows a cooling trend in solar cycles. He also references previous studies that predict a doubling of CO2 concentration leading to warming in the troposphere, particularly in high-latitudes. Lu suggests that real observations will determine the reliability of these predictions.
00:20:00 In this section, Qing-Bin Lu discusses the observations and predictions regarding sea level rise due to CO2 levels. He mentions that the observed average increase in global sea level between 1901 and 2018 was only 15 to 25 cm, which is drastically different from the predicted 5-meter rise. Lu then explains the concept of radiative forcing in climate models, which is the initial imbalance of radiative flux in the atmosphere due to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations or solar radiation. He mentions that while there are slight differences in the definitions of radiative forcing, the values for CO2 and other greenhouse gases are very similar in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models.
00:25:00 In this section, Qing-Bin Lu discusses the linear relationship between the radiative force and greenhouse gas concentration. He explains that there is a specific constant, Kai, for each greenhouse gas that depends on its absorption intensity in the atmospheric window. For CO2, this force can be simplified as 5.35 times the logarithm of the concentration divided by the concentration before industrial resolution (approximately 278 PPM). Lu points out that this logarithmic relationship is based on considering partial saturation rather than complete saturation of CO2 infrared absorption in the atmosphere. He compares the radiative forcing (RF) values calculated using this relationship with those obtained from spectral resolution models and finds an excellent agreement within 5%. Lu reveals that there is no major difference between the values given by AR5 and AR6 in terms of CO2 sensitivity, indicating that this simple equation provides similar results to more complex models. However, Lu emphasizes the importance of testing this relationship using direct observations.
00:30:00 In this section, Qing-Bin Lu discusses the climate sensitivity effect, which refers to the response of surface temperature to changes in solar radiation and greenhouse gases. The equation for surface temperature takes into account feedback factors such as water vapor, lapse rate, and cloud cover, which can amplify the direct response to radiative forcing. The amplification factor is represented by the parameter beta. However, there is a large uncertainty in the value of beta, leading to uncertainty in climate sensitivity. In previous IPCC reports, alpha and beta were separated, but in AR5 and AR6, they are no longer separated, although the beta value is mentioned. Instead, the climate sensitivity factor Lambda is given in relation to the total feedback parameter ITA. It is important to note that in climate models, these parameters are adjustable to match observations. In terms of CO2-based models, climate sensitivity is often expressed as the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), which refers to the temperature increase due to a doubling of CO2 concentration. In AR6, the best estimated value for ECS is 3 degrees Celsius with a range of 2.5 to 4 degrees Celsius.
00:35:00 In this section, Qing-Bin Lu discusses the estimated value of the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) and its sensitivity to climate models and parameters. He mentions that the ECS value for CO2 doubling is 3.1 degrees, which is identical to the value given in previous reports. Lu explains that this value is calculated based on multiple climate models and their average forcing value, resulting in a surface temperature increase of 3 degrees. He also introduces the concept of the Total Feedback Parameter (TFP) and the Changing Temperature Change Requirement Response (TCR) parameter to account for the discrepancies between model results and observations. Overall, Lu emphasizes the simplicity of the equation used to calculate these values and highlights the agreement between his calculations and previous reports.
00:40:00 In this section, Qing-Bin Lu discusses the relationship between greenhouse gases and temperature change. He mentions that there is a linear relationship between forcing and sensitivity, and that the sensitivity effect has become 0.51 instead of 0.8. He also talks about the importance of considering the ozone and aerosols in addition to greenhouse gases when calculating radiative forcing. Lu presents data showing the significant increase in ozone concentration in the Arctic region due to air pollution control, while the Antarctic region remains relatively unaffected. Overall, this section highlights the complexities involved in predicting temperature change and the role of different factors in the process.
00:45:00 In this section, Qing-Bin Lu introduces the concept of the CFC Warming Model, which is based on the quantum physics of Earth's infrared radiation. Lu explains that the Earth absorbs solar radiation during the daytime and emits infrared radiation into space at night. He emphasizes that the emitted radiation is different from the solar radiation because it is infrared and has a different spectral range. Lu presents a graph showing the radiation intensity spectrum based on the Planck formula. He points out that the peak of the spectrum is around 1 micrometer.
00:50:00 In this section, Qing-Bin Lu discusses the spectral peak of CO2 and how it can be misleading to present it at 15 micrometers. By using physics calculations, Lu explains that the Earth's surface radiation spectra should actually peak at approximately 10 micrometers. He also highlights the atmospheric transmission spectra and the transparency of the 8 to 13 micrometer range, known as the atmospheric window. Lu explains that gases like CFCs have a strong absorption band within this range, contributing to the greenhouse effect. Additionally, he mentions the overlap between the absorption bands of CO2 and N2 with water vapor, which is the primary absorber of infrared radiation in the atmosphere. Overall, Lu emphasizes the complexity of these interactions and the need to consider multiple factors when studying the greenhouse effect.
00:55:00 In this section, Qing-Bin Lu discusses the heat radiation in the atmosphere and its relationship with CO2 concentration. Lu explains that the heat radiation in the atmosphere is essentially constant and independent of CO2 concentration, as modeled in the 1960s and 1970s. Lu then explains the concept of radiative forcing and how increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap infrared radiation, leading to a decrease in outgoing longwave radiation intensity. He introduces the idea of the atmospheric window, a wavelength range through which the majority of surface radiation is emitted into space, and notes that changes in greenhouse gas concentrations in this window can have a significant impact on heat radiation in the atmosphere. Lu discusses the climate sensitivity effect for greenhouse gases and ozone in this spectral window, determining a climate sensitivity factor of 1.16 K per W/m^2. He also mentions the need to determine the amplification factor beta using observation-based methods.

01:00:00 - 01:40:00

Dr. Qing-Bin Lu discusses various observations and calculations regarding solar radiation, CO2, CFCs, and temperature change. He presents equations to calculate solar radiation and direct temperature response, as well as the amplification factor for climate sensitivity. He notes the similarity between CFC distribution and atmospheric patterns and highlights discrepancies between CO2 climate models and observations. Dr. Lu also discusses the impact of CO2 and CFCs on temperature change, as well as the effects of ice melting and Arctic amplification. He challenges the notion that CO2 is the main driver of global warming and presents his own model that predicts a gradual cooling trend in the coming decades. He emphasizes the importance of using observation data rather than adjusting it to fit models. Additionally, he opposes injecting particles into the atmosphere to reduce global warming and suggests controlling CFCs as a more effective approach. Finally, Dr. Lu expresses concerns about the reliability of temperature observation data and the frequent adjustments made to it.

01:00:00 In this section, Dr. Qing-Bin Lu discusses the relationship between solar radiation and temperature change during the solar cycle. He explains that the change in solar radiation can be easily calculated using simple equations, and this can be used to calculate the direct temperature response to solar forcing during the 11-year solar cycle. Dr. Lu also presents the amplification factor, beta, which determines the total feedback including water vapor and other factors. Based on observations, he determines the climate sensitivity Lambda for solar to be 46 and the climate sensitivity factor for greenhouse gases to be 1.77. He emphasizes that these values are determined through direct measurements and observations. He further explains that the change in greenhouse gas concentration and the change in solar intensity during the solar cycle can be used to calculate the surface temperature without the need for adjustable parameters. Finally, he mentions that these concepts are presented in detail in his book published in 2015.
01:05:00 In this section, Qing-Bin Lu discusses several key observations related to CO2 and CFCs. Firstly, he notes that there is a striking similarity between the pattern of CFC distribution in the atmosphere and the Waring pattern in the anmos (atmosphere). He also mentions that satellite data from the early 2000s shows an increase in temperatures in the upper atmosphere, contradicting the predictions of the DCM model, which expected cooling. Lu further highlights the discrepancy between CO2 climate models and observations of outgoing long-wave radiation. While the CO2 models predicted a negative bend (indicative of CO2 absorption), analysis by multiple research teams did not find this predicted signature, leading to doubt about CO2's radiative forcing during the period from 1970 to the 2000s. These observations challenge the current understanding of CO2's role in climate change.
01:10:00 In this section, Qing-Bin Lu discusses the impact of CO2 and CFCs on temperature change. He explains that before 1950, there was only CO2 present in the atmosphere, and there was no significant change in temperature. However, after the introduction of CFCs, there is a strong linear correlation between CFC concentration and surface temperature increase. Lu also notes that since 2015, there has been a renewed increase in temperature, which requires further study. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the relationship between greenhouse gases and temperature change.
01:15:00 In this section, Dr. Qing-Bin Lu discusses the impact of ice melting and Arctic amplification on temperature changes. He explains that before 2015, there was a significant increase in ice extent in the southern hemisphere, which can be attributed to the depletion of ozone. However, after 2015, the ice started melting, leading to a rise in temperature. This temperature increase mainly occurred in the colder seasons, such as winter and spring. Dr. Lu also mentions that if we exclude the areas with ice melting, the temperature trends show a slight decline since 2005 in North America. Overall, he suggests that the observations support the idea of Arctic amplification causing gradual warming.
01:20:00 In this section, Qing-Bin Lu discusses the cooling trend and lack of evidence supporting the idea that CO2 is causing warming. He presents his research on temperature holes, specifically the ozone and temperature holes in the Tropic and Antarctic regions. Lu also shares his equation for calculating ozone depletion based on atmospheric particle surface and electron flux. He emphasizes that his calculations show no significant CO2 climate effect and provides evidence from regional surface temperature data in the Arctic and Central England to support his claims. Lu's research challenges the commonly accepted notion that CO2 is the main driver of global warming.
01:25:00 In this section, Qing-Bin Lu discusses the comparison between CO2 predictions from General Circulation Models (GCMs) and observed data. Lu points out that while GCMs predict a 7 to 10 degree increase in temperature with a doubling of CO2 levels, the actual surface temperature in Antarctica shows a slight decrease until around 1960, followed by a sudden 27 degree increase between 1960 and 1980. Lu then presents his own CFC War model, which calculates a 31 degree increase in temperature due to greenhouse gas emissions from 1960 to 1980, in line with the observed data. This analysis, according to Lu, challenges the accuracy of CO2 climate models and suggests that other factors like CFC emissions should be considered.
01:30:00 In this section, Qing-Bin Lu discusses his research and the predictions he has made based on a model he developed. He argues that CO2 is not the primary driver of global warming, but rather CFCs and cosmic rays. Lu claims that his empirical model, which is based on observation and does not require any adjustments, predicts a gradual cooling trend in the coming decades. He suggests that the IPCC's conclusion that CO2 is causing warming is inconsistent with his observations. Lu also emphasizes the need for other researchers to stop adjusting temperature or ozone data to fit their models and instead rely on observation data.
01:35:00 In this section, the speaker objects to the proposal of injecting particles into the atmosphere to reduce global warming, arguing that it would have harmful environmental effects. They suggest that controlling CFCs would be a more effective approach to addressing climate change. The speaker also mentions concerns about the reliability of temperature observation data, as well as discussions with other researchers who have different opinions. They express nervousness about the frequent adjustments made to temperature data and question the use of models to adjust historical records.
01:40:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the adjustments made to climate data and expresses a preference for using the original data without adjustments. They mention that continuous changes to the data make it difficult to determine the objective and original data, leading to uncertainty. The speaker emphasizes the importance of approaching science objectively and relying on scientific observations to make solid conclusions about climate change. They assert that based on the data they have seen and their calculations, the main cause of climate change is CFCs rather than CO2.