Summary of #12 - Douglas Pollock on big problems with wind and solar power

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

Douglas Pollock covers a number of issues with wind and solar power in this YouTube video. He explains that while renewable generation does have an impact on the cost of electricity, this is not just due to renewable generation; thermal generation efficiency and performance are also affected by renewable generation. Additionally, he notes the challenges facing European countries, which have heavily invested in wind and solar power. He discusses the ideal grid that should use only combined cycle gas turbines to backup renewable generation to lower CO2 output emission rates. Pollock highlights how the incorrect installation of renewable power can eat into energy reserve margins and need for additional electricity generation. He also addresses the misconception that every megawatt of renewable generation prevents emissions equal to that of coal-fired power plants, stating that in the case of the United States, it is only around 1/50th of that.

00:00:00 In this section, Douglas Pollock discusses the contradictory arguments surrounding the cost of electricity and CO2 emissions in correlation to the increase in renewable energy usage. While one argument states that as renewable generation goes up, the cost of electricity must go down, another argues that while renewable generation goes up, electricity costs go up as well. Pollock explains that both arguments are partially true, but that an important element is missing - there is no causation effect between the premise and conclusion of the argument. He uses graphs to demonstrate that although the sun and wind are free, there is no relationship between investment costs dropping and a reduction in electricity prices or CO2 emissions.
00:05:00 In this section, Douglas Pollock discusses the relationship between renewable generation and thermal generation. He explains that as renewable generation increases, it affects the efficiency and performance of thermal generation because of the need to back up renewable generation. Therefore, the renewable generation will always force thermal generation to work inefficiently. Pollock also presents a graph showing that as the renewable generation increases, the thermal generation's incurred costs go up, and there is a limit to the maximum renewable generation fraction in a grid. This limit restricts how much renewable generation a grid can bear, and all renewable generation above that limit will be lost. The cost of renewable energy beyond that limit will continue to increase, leading to a rise in grid electricity costs.
00:10:00 In this section, Douglas Pollock explains that adding renewable generation into the grid will result in two different scenarios, which are determined by the efficiency level of the grid. If the efficiency level is lower, the renewable generation will go up while the thermal duration goes down, causing a slight decrease in costs but not enough to make the grid electricity cheaper. On the other hand, if the efficiency level of the grid is greater than two, the cost of electricity will increase more rapidly due to a rise in the renewable generation. Coal is the best source of thermal generation to ramp up quickly, but it takes hours to change and synchronize the frequency from the generator with the grid, so Pollock recommends using combined cycle or simple cycle power gas turbines to back up renewables. However, renewable generation is always preferred to coal or other non-renewable sources.
00:15:00 In this section, the speaker explains the concept of base load generation, where coal, nuclear, or hydroelectricity is used to supply minimum generation at maximum efficiency throughout the day while gas is used as peakers or shavers. While coal is used for base load generation, gas is more expensive than coal even as it emits less CO2 than coal. In terms of hydroelectric stations, you can adjust the station to produce more or less power depending on the flow of water. The speaker also notes that it doesn't make sense to have solar power in places like Tucson because when you pass capacity limits, you generate excess electricity that will be lost. Lastly, the speaker observes the problem with the political nature of running electrical grids.
00:20:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the challenges facing European countries that have heavily invested in wind and solar power. He notes that Germany, which has dismantled its nuclear power plants in favor of renewables, is running out of time to bring back cogeneration power plants and faces a potential energy crisis. Despite the urgency, the speaker argues that it would be illegal to violate contracts and mandates to simply get rid of wind and solar power. Instead, he suggests cutting subsidies and re-adequating the calculation of electricity costs to account for the thermal backup generation needed for renewables.
00:25:00 In this section, Douglas Pollock discusses the technical and economic obstacles facing the renewable energy industry. He explains that, in order to fairly allocate costs, the existing cost of thermal backup sources must be assigned to support renewables, otherwise renewables would not be able to compete financially. Pollock also explains that the idea of running a 2,000-mile cable to transport solar energy is completely unrealistic due to the tremendous loss of energy over such a distance. He notes that California's plan to switch to all EVs will increase emissions unless the grid is hydroelectric or nuclear, as electric cars have upstream emissions that are often not accounted for.
00:30:00 In this section, Douglas Pollock explains the big problem with the green supporters' claim that electricity prices must drop because of renewable investment cost decrease. He emphasizes that investment cost and capital cost are two different variables, and the investment cost is not included in the levelized cost of electricity. Moreover, the capacity factor of a renewable source is much lower than that of a thermal source, resulting in almost three times greater capital cost for a renewable source. Therefore, this claim is misleading as cost reduction due to investment cost decrease would not directly lead to CO2 emission reduction.
00:35:00 In this section, Douglas Pollock discusses the ideal grid and how it should use only combined cycle gas turbines to backup renewable generation. Using any other source of generation to backup renewables will increase the operating heat rate and CO2 output emission rate. Inefficient thermal sources, such as oil and simple combined gas turbines, offer little efficiency in their operation with other sources and push the total emission rate up. The cost of electricity will only drop as a renewable generation fraction increases if it is due to a decrease in fuel prices, which is intentionally misleading. In the US, for the entire year of 2019, there was only a drop of 7.7 million tons of CO2 emissions, which is barely significant.
00:40:00 In this section, Douglas Pollock discusses the results of adding renewables to the grid, stating that it causes the cost of electricity to increase, even in cases where the investment cost of the renewable source is zero. He explains that the idea of achieving zero CO2 emissions in a realistic operational scenario is an "utopia," and reducing thermal generation beyond a certain limit is not possible. Pollock also addresses the misconception that every megawatt of renewable generation prevents emissions equal to that of coal-fired power plants, stating that in the case of the United States, it is only around 1/50th of that. Lastly, he explains the mistake of expanding renewable sources by dismantling thermal power plants, as this leads to an asymmetric renewable growth.
00:45:00 In this section, Douglas Pollock discusses the issue of energy reserves and security margins being eroded due to the incorrect installation of wind and solar power, causing the need for additional electricity generation. He explains that the proper method would be to install 30 megawatts of renewable capacity and 20 megawatts of combined cycle gas turbines, but no one is doing it. Eating into security generation capacity and lack of electricity could cause issues in places like Oregon, Washington, California, New York, Europe, and Australia. Pollock also discussed Texas's blackout situation last year, where many people died, and how wind power can stop working during high pressure systems for several days, causing the need for battery backup. He urges people to read the World Climate Declaration titled "There's No Climate Emergency" on the website printl.org, and he is against social media.
00:50:00 In this section, Douglas Pollock discusses claims made by Al Gore regarding the cost reduction of solar power by 90%, noting that in the last decade, solar panels have actually only dropped by an average of 78%, and onshore wind turbines by 55%. Additionally, Pollock argues that even if renewable sources were to reach zero investment cost, they would still have a capital cost much higher than thermal sources, and that a break-even point will be reached where renewables will become very expensive due to the lack of resources needed to build them. Pollock also points out the impracticality of trying to power an entire city or factory with only wind and solar, as it is impossible to control the weather and the cost of these sources will only increase with time.
00:55:00 In this section, Douglas Pollock discusses the energy required to manufacture and build solar panels and wind turbines. He explains how solar panels built above 35 degrees of latitude north or south require more energy to build and manufacture than they will produce in their entire lifetime. Similarly, he discusses how wind turbines have different capacity factors depending on the location where they are placed. He also dismisses the claim that solar panels can produce energy at night using moonlight. Pollock notes that while there are offshore wind turbines, they are more expensive than onshore turbines and use the same technology.

01:00:00 - 01:05:00

Douglas Pollock discusses the issues surrounding wind and solar power, highlighting the intermittency of these sources and short turbine lifespan as leading to inefficiencies and higher capital costs, ultimately increasing the cost of energy for people worldwide and causing harm to the environment. Pollock even shares his own journey of becoming a climate skeptic after challenging the climate change narrative through his research of science, economics, and politics.