Summary of Rupert Darwall: The wheels are coming off net zero | Tom Nelson Pod #197

00:00:00 - 00:55:00

In "Rupert Darwall: The wheels are coming off net zero | Tom Nelson Pod #197," Darwall discusses the economic and political implications of the net zero emissions goal in Britain. He highlights the financial strain caused by the decarbonization efforts and the resulting economic challenges, such as increased energy costs, grid instability, and de-industrialization. Darwall also criticizes the lack of critical analysis and the suppression of climate debate, specifically mentioning the case of Michael Mann and the hockey stick graph. According to Darwall, the net zero target is ideologically driven and lacks a scientific basis. He argues that the political commitment to net zero by the British political elite and the media's overwhelming support for the goal are significant barriers to criticism. Darwall expresses optimism that the net zero agenda will collapse as people increasingly speak out against it.

• 00:00:00 In this section of "Rupert Darwall: The wheels are coming off net zero | Tom Nelson Pod #197", Rupert Darwall discusses the House of Lords' report on the costs of achieving net zero emissions in Britain, which highlights the financial strain caused by the decarbonization efforts. Darwall debunks the notion that Britain's emissions have been declining significantly due to climate policies, arguing that the economy had already been decarbonizing for decades before the climate change Act was passed in 2008. He also highlights that the British economy has stagnated since then, partly due to the negative impact of decarbonization on energy costs and living standards. Darwall vitally points out the intermittent renewable energy sources receive twice the price for their electricity compared to reliable thermal and nuclear sources, leading to a distorted and inefficient energy market.
• 00:05:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Rupert Darwall: The wheels are coming off net zero | Tom Nelson Pod #197," Darwall discusses the economic implications of the shift towards renewable energy, specifically wind and solar, at the expense of non-intermittent capacity. According to Darwall's analysis, thermal generators were losing money per megawatt hour due to environmental levies, while renewables were experiencing astronomical profits. This overinvestment in wind and solar and underinvestment in non-intermittent capacity has led to increased costs, CO2 emissions, and grid management challenges. Darwall refers to this as the "iron law of the energy transition," where producing less with more resources is the essential fact. Recently, there have been high-profile challenges to the Net Zero targets in the UK, with the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee holding hearings to discuss the economic implications.
• 00:10:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Rupert Darwall: The wheels are coming off net zero | Tom Nelson Pod #197", experts such as Olivia Blanchard, former Chief Economist of the IMF, and DEA Helm, a well-known British energy economist, testified that the net zero emissions goal is not cost-effective and would require trillions of dollars in capital deployment to produce less electricity. The British households and businesses already pay significantly higher electricity rates compared to their US counterparts, resulting in de-industrialization and exporting manufacturing jobs to countries like China. Politicians' realization of the disaster brought about by Net Zero seems unclear due to lack of coherent economic thinking and political constraints. The Net Zero Target became law with no debate or vote in Parliament, leaving all parties legally bound to meet the target and unable to question it. The current British political class is deeply entrenched in Net Zero, making it difficult for them to abandon the goal.
• 00:15:00 In this section of the "Rupert Darwall: The wheels are coming off net zero" podcast, Darwall discusses the political implications of the Net Zero commitment in the context of the upcoming UK election. He suggests that the Conservative Party, once out of power, may reconsider their support for Net Zero due to the increasing challenges it presents. Darwall explains that the Conservatives have had several elections since 2010 and have failed to deliver on their promises, causing voter apathy. Labor, on the other hand, is similarly unpopular due to its commitment to Net Zero. Darwall argues that the UK's power grid is becoming less stable as coal-fired power plants are taken offline and replaced with renewable and intermittent energy sources. This uncertainty around electricity generation has resulted in high costs for maintaining backup power and keeping the grid stable. The speaker also emphasizes the economic irrationality of politicians celebrating the demolition of coal-fired power plants, as coal was and remains the cheapest and most reliable energy source for generating electricity. The Transition to Net Zero, given the current state of UK energy infrastructure, is seemingly impossible without substantial investments to ensure grid stability, and Darwall suggests that this could lead to a reconsideration of the Net Zero target once the Conservatives are no longer in power.
• 00:20:00 In this section of the podcast, Rupert Darwall discusses the consequences of net zero policies on industries such as coal mining and steelmaking. He mentions that Alok Sharma, a previous president of the Glasgow climate conference, has taken pride in shutting down coal mines. Despite this, when the steel industry in South Wales is forced to close due to high carbon taxes, politicians are left puzzled and blame companies for the closures. Darwall notes that many politicians lack a clear understanding of the implications of net zero policies and seem to believe that industries will magically transition to using only wind and solar energy, disregarding the challenges of supply and demand for necessary minerals. Darwall expresses doubts that these politicians have practical experience in manufacturing or understanding of the realities of production, leading to a lack of critical assessment and a polarizing attitude towards those questioning net zero policies.
• 00:25:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Rupert Darwall: The wheels are coming off net zero | Tom Nelson Pod #197," Darwall discusses his concern with the make-believe assumptions and lack of critical analysis surrounding the net zero transition in the UK. He mentions assessments from the Treasury and the Office of Budget Responsibility that ignore contradictory data on increased productivity growth and the cost of decarbonization. Darwall critiques the UK government's reliance on the independent Climate Change Committee, which he states is dominated by environmentalists and their "green make-believe." He points out that Britain's emissions reductions have been almost entirely offset by the rest of the world's emissions increase. Darwall believes this dynamic of significant costs with minimal benefits may lead to increased skepticism towards net zero among the public. He also mentions the rise of questioning authority and lack of trust in institutions in society, but does not see a similar trend with the net zero transition.
• 00:30:00 In this section of the "Rupert Darwall: The wheels are coming off net zero" podcast episode 197 by Tom Nelson, Darwall discusses the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) in the UK and the lack of scrutiny and debate surrounding the net zero agenda. He notes that businesses and fleets account for most EV purchases, while consumers in the US are more hesitant. Darwall highlights ongoing economic struggles for the average British household and the widespread embrace of net zero by the BBC and political classes. He contrasts this with the more open political discourse in the US, where diverse opinions are more welcome, and mentions the absence of prominent net zero critics in the UK's political sphere. Darwall anticipates that the net zero debate may intensify after the upcoming election but isn't optimistic about significant change beforehand.
• 00:35:00 In this section of the "Rupert Darwall: The wheels are coming off net zero" podcast with Tom Nelson (Pod #197), they discuss the media landscape regarding climate change and net zero in both the UK and the US. Darwall asserts that the BBC and other mainstream media outlets in the UK are overwhelmingly in favor of net zero, creating a blanket ban on voices questioning this goal. He mentions GB News as the exception, where voices opposing net zero are permitted. Darwall also highlights the significance of the Spiral of Silence concept, which suggests that if people don't hear others agreeing with their opinions, they may choose to remain silent, ultimately leading to the marginalization and disappearance of those viewpoints. The discussion then moves on to comparisons between the media in the US and the UK, with Darwall expressing shock that 25% of his audience is from the US, despite the perceived domination of climate-related narratives in British media.
• 00:40:00 In this section of the podcast, Rupert Darwall expresses optimism about the impending collapse of the net zero agenda, drawing parallels to the collapse of Communism. He believes that as people increasingly speak out against net zero, it will snowball and fall apart quickly. Darwall points to the British political elite's strong commitment to net zero and their potential embarrassment if it is proven to be false as significant barriers to criticism. He shares his observation that in European economic discussions, there is a tendency to overlook the impact of net zero and the energy transition on economic outcomes. The host also mentions a cultural difference in questioning and challenging experts on climate and net zero between the US and Europe, with the US being more skeptical. Darwall also briefly touches on the Michael Mann defamation case, for which he wrote an article.
• 00:45:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Rupert Darwall: The wheels are coming off net zero | Tom Nelson Pod #197," the discussion revolves around Michael Mann, a climate scientist known for his work on climate change and the infamous "hockey stick graph." Darwall explains that Mann's research purportedly showed that the Industrial Revolution caused a significant temperature spike and eliminated the medieval warm period. However, the medieval warm period was once widely accepted by climatologists, and societal advancements during this period proved that unusual warmth was not a catastrophic phenomenon. The trial of Michael Mann against Mark Steyn and Rand Simberg in 2012 led to a verdict in which Mann was awarded a minimal amount for damage to his reputation, while Simberg and Steyn faced severe punitive damages. This jury composed of Washington D.C. residents, a city often referred to as having a strong Democratic bias, was criticized for the outcome, as it was seen as an attack on free speech and targeting climate skeptics. Darwall also mentions the controversy surrounding Mann's manipulation of the hockey stick graph, which allegedly downplayed the medieval warm period. Whether the manipulation was intentional or not is up for debate.
• 00:50:00 In this section of the podcast "Rupert Darwall: The wheels are coming off net zero" with Tom Nelson, they discuss the suppression of climate debate and the case of the hockey stick. The trial's closing statement made by John Williams, who urged jurors to award punitive damages against climate denialists and mentioned Trump, was considered an outrageous and improper appeal. Williams' statement was aimed at suppressing debate and reinforcing the idea of exceptional warming. Gerald North, a leading atmospheric physicist, critiqued the hockey stick's importance and its reliance on dodgy statistical analysis. North also pointed out that the perceived temperature increase in recent years was not supported by the 5,000-year-old tree stumps or other historical evidence. Furthermore, predictions of imminent climate catastrophe and tipping points, such as a complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet, were found to be multiple millennia in the future. These discussions reveal the necessity of critically evaluating climate science and its potential repercussions.
• 00:55:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "Rupert Darwall: The wheels are coming off net zero | Tom Nelson Pod #197," Darwall discusses the dishonesty behind the two-degree and one-and-a-half-degree limits for global temperature increase. He argues that these limits are ideologically driven and lack a scientific basis. The limits were first set by European environment ministers, and small island States have pushed for even lower limits due to the perceived threat of rising sea levels. Darwall points out that corals actually benefit from rising sea levels, making the claim of catastrophic consequences for small islands questionable. He also exposes the financial incentives of small island States to perpetuate the narrative of impending climate doom, as they receive significant funding for it. Overall, Darwall calls out the net-zero by 2050 target as a fraudulent and politically driven goal.