Summary of Podcast AGROTalk #230 Modelos matemáticos preveem impacto das mudanças climáticas na produção agríco

00:00:00 - 00:50:00

In the AGROTalk podcast episode 230, researchers led by Fernando Macena from Embrapa Agropecuária discuss the impact of climate change on agricultural production in the Serrado region using mathematical models. The study, published in the Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment journal, uses a development, growth, and yield model for soybean and corn and a climate prediction model to predict the impact of climate change scenarios on nitrous oxide emissions. The model shows an increasing trend of nitrous oxide emissions due to the greenhouse effect, which could lead to decreased biomass production and grain yields for farmers. The speakers emphasize the importance of accurate and reliable information for farmers to make informed decisions and the need for collaboration between research institutions, universities, and the media to reach farmers in remote areas. They also encourage farmers to stay connected and efficiently receive research results and communication to improve their farming systems and adapt to climate changes. The podcast concludes with an invitation to attend an upcoming event organized by Climatempo where specialists and leaders from the agriculture and energy sectors in Brazil will gather to discuss solutions related to climate changes in these industries.

• 00:00:00 In this section of the AGROTalk podcast episode 230, the focus is on the impact of climate changes on agricultural production, specifically in the Serrado region. Researchers led by Fernando Macena from Embrapa Agropecuária have conducted a study published in the Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment journal. The study uses mathematical models to predict the impact of climate change scenarios on nitrous oxide emissions. The model used in the study shows an increasing trend of nitrous oxide emissions due to the greenhouse effect over the next 50 years. The researchers aim to discuss the implications of this increase on biomass production and grain yields for farmers. The study's methodology involves using two types of models: a development, growth, and yield model for soybean and corn, and a climate prediction model. The long-term experiment for this study began in 1995 and covers various soil management techniques, including conventional tillage and direct planting.
• 00:05:00 In this section of the AGROTalk #230 podcast, the speaker discusses the importance of long-term agricultural experiments and modeling to predict the impact of climate change on soybean and corn production. The experiment, which started in 1995, involved measuring plant growth factors such as temperature and soil moisture to create more efficient models for estimating yield and biomass. The researchers used a climate prediction model called Eta-RG, which was adapted for Brazil and South America, to generate climate projections until 2070. The model showed a significant increase in temperature, with a potential rise of up to 2.2 degrees Celsius in maximum temperature and 1.7 degrees Celsius in minimum temperature. This temperature increase could lead to shorter growing seasons for soybean and corn, resulting in lower yields due to fewer days for growth and production. Additionally, the model also considers the impact of elevated temperatures on plant development, including potential issues with flowering and grain filling. The study, which focused on the rainy season in the Serrado region, revealed that the projected temperature increase could lead to a significant decrease in soybean and corn yields. The researchers also noted an increase in nitrous oxide emissions, which was previously mentioned in the podcast introduction.
• 00:10:00 In this section of the AGROTalk #230 podcast, the discussion revolves around the use of nitrogen in agriculture and its impact on food production in the context of climate change. The demand for food, particularly for meat, eggs, and soy, has led farmers to use more nitrogen to increase crop yields. However, rising temperatures may decrease production and increase the need for nitrogen fertilizers, leading to higher emissions of nitrous oxide. The study compared conventional farming methods with direct planting and found that the latter, despite a decrease in yield, produces more than the conventional method and emits less nitrous oxide. Nitrous oxide, although emitted in smaller quantities than other gases, has a greater warming potential and remains in the atmosphere for up to 100 years. Farmers and producers need to be aware of this and take steps to reduce their nitrous oxide emissions to mitigate the contribution to global warming.
• 00:15:00 In this section of the AGROTalk #230 podcast, the discussion revolves around the impact of mathematical models on predicting the effects of climate changes on agricultural production. A rural producer is encouraged to monitor climate changes, including extreme weather events, which are caused by global warming and affect both rural and urban areas. The focus then shifts to the process of nitrogen adubation and the transformation of nitrogen into nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas. The podcast explains that nitrogen is applied to the soil for fertilization, and a portion of it is absorbed by the plant while another part is transformed into nitrous oxide through chemical reactions and the action of microorganisms. This gas is released into the atmosphere, contributing to the greenhouse effect and global warming. The podcast also highlights the importance of using sustainable farming systems, such as direct planting, which are more resilient to climate changes, reduce water evaporation, and emit less greenhouse gases.
• 00:20:00 In this section of the AGROTalk #230 podcast, the discussion revolves around the use of mathematical models to predict the impact of climate changes on agricultural production in Brazil. The speakers highlight the importance of soil management and crop rotation, taking into account the seasonality of rains, atmospheric humidity, soil temperature, and nitrogen mineral levels. These factors determine the emissions of nitrous oxide. The attention is drawn to a study that shows the increasing use of direct-seeded or minimal tillage systems in Brazil, which will become more common among farmers. The speakers emphasize that agriculture in Brazil is crucial for global food production and the need to make it more sustainable while continuing to produce efficiently. The study recommends that breeding programs for all cereals should focus on cultivars that can produce well even in a short growing season and are resilient to high temperatures. The speakers also mention ongoing research on developing heat-resistant crops, especially in states with high temperatures.
• 00:25:00 In this section of the Podcast AGROTalk #230, the speakers discuss the challenges farmers face due to extreme weather conditions, specifically heavy rainfall and high temperatures. They explain that while genetic improvement is more advanced for dealing with excess rain than heat, the latter is more complex as extreme rain can lead to flooding and damage to crops. The speakers also mention that even without flooding, extreme rain during the wrong season can negatively impact crop quality. For soybeans, for instance, heavy rain during the growing season can result in lower yields. The speakers emphasize the importance of understanding climate projections for the next few months to a year to help farmers make informed decisions about which crops to grow and how to manage them. They also mention the development of materials and crops that are more resilient to stresses such as heat and drought.
• 00:30:00 In this section of the "AGROTalk #230" podcast, the speakers discuss the importance of accurate and reliable information for farmers in the context of climate change and agricultural production. They mention the study of a root system from Mandacaru that could improve soil profiling and water usage for plants, especially during dry seasons. The speakers emphasize the need for farmers to be well-informed about current and future climate conditions to make informed decisions about materials and cultivars for their regions. They also introduce the concept of agricultural zoning based on climate risk, which helps farmers understand and prepare for climate variability in both short and long terms. The speakers highlight the importance of agrometeorological information, agricultural zoning, and the best cultivar and farming system for farmers. They also acknowledge the role of companies like Climatempo in providing climate change information to farmers and emphasize the need for collaboration between research institutions, universities, and the media to reach farmers in remote areas.
• 00:35:00 In this section of the "AGROTalk #230" podcast, the speakers emphasize the importance of farmers staying connected and efficiently receiving research results and communication. This enriches the producers and helps them improve, focusing on sustainable and resilient farming systems from both a climatic and market perspective. Producers following the podcast can use meteorological information more effectively to mitigate risks, such as incorporating organic matter into the soil and intercalating crops. Soil management is crucial for maintaining a healthy soil ecosystem and reducing the need for synthetic fertilizers. Farmers should also pay attention to agrometeorological information to plan planting, harvesting, and monitor crop development. This information can help optimize water usage and improve the soil's water retention, ultimately benefiting both large and small farmers. Additionally, understanding future climate projections is essential for farmers to adapt to potential changes in their regions and plan for alternative crops if necessary.
• 00:40:00 In this section of the "AGROTalk #230" podcast, the speakers discuss the impact of climate changes on soybean and corn production in Brazil during the rainy season, which typically occurs in October, November, and December. This period can lead to productivity losses and increased emissions of nitrous oxide. The speakers also emphasize the need to develop short-cycle crops with satisfactory production to mitigate the effects of climate change. They introduce the Sticks model, a French model adapted for Brazilian agriculture, which simulates temperature, moisture, and germination processes. The speakers also mention the importance of climate data, agricultural zoning, and sustainable farming practices to adapt to the changing climate and reduce the risks for Brazilian agriculture. Despite some skepticism, they agree that climate changes are real and are already affecting agriculture with more frequent and extreme weather events. The trio of soil, plant, and climate is essential for agriculture, and producers must seek detailed information on these topics to make informed decisions.
• 00:45:00 In this section of the Podcast AGROTalk #230, the hosts discuss an upcoming event organized by Climatempo, where specialists and leaders from the agriculture and energy sectors in Brazil will gather to discuss solutions related to climate changes in these industries. The event, which will take place on July 25 in São José dos Campos, aims to interconnect these two sectors as they are essential for a sustainable and resilient future. The hosts invite the listener to attend the event and engage in open and collaborative discussions to drive actions and innovations that will help address the challenges posed by climate changes in these sectors. The hosts also express their gratitude to Embrapa, an institution that has helped make a difference in society, and invite them to be a bridge between the formation and the field. Embrapa is encouraged to be a constant partner in these efforts. The hosts conclude by expressing their appreciation for the listener and their role as a vital bridge between the information and the producer. The podcast ends with a note of gratitude and a promise to share more information as it becomes available.
• 00:50:00 In this section of the AGROTalk #230 podcast, the speakers discuss how mathematical models are used to predict the impact of climate change on agricultural production. They explain that these models take into account various factors such as temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide levels, and use historical data to simulate future scenarios. The speakers highlight the importance of these models in helping farmers and policymakers prepare for the challenges of climate change, such as adapting to new crop varieties or implementing irrigation systems. They also acknowledge the limitations of these models, such as the difficulty of accurately predicting extreme weather events or accounting for all the complex interactions between climate and agriculture. Overall, the speakers emphasize the value of mathematical modeling in helping to mitigate the risks of climate change for the agricultural sector.