Summary of #34 - Andy May: “CO2-driven climate models of the IPCC are inadequate”

00:00:00 - 00:40:00

In this YouTube video, Andy May argues that the Earth's climate system is complex, and there is a lack of a proper theory in modern climatology to describe its fundamental features. He claims that the current CO2-driven climate models of the IPCC are inadequate, and we need to look to the planet's past climate history to understand how the Earth's climate system works. May discusses the equable climate problem, which refers to the failure of modern consensus climate theory to explain the warm early Eocene climate. He also discusses the impact of solar activity and volcanism on climate and argues that the IPCC's CO2-driven climate models are inadequate. Additionally, May presents Javier's hypothesis that predicts a cooling trend for the next 10 years, but warming would resume in the early 2030s, which won't be dangerous and will last for about 200 years before a major cooling trend starts up again.

• 00:00:00 In this section, Andy May discusses the complexity of the Earth's climate system and the lack of a proper theory in modern climatology to describe the fundamental features of its energy transport. He explains that while the solar irradiance constitutes over 99.9% of the energy input to the climate system, what determines the Earth's temperature is what the climate system does with that energy. Additionally, he argues that the current CO2-driven climate models of the IPCC are inadequate and that two degrees of global warming is not necessarily dangerous.
• 00:05:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the latitudinal temperature gradient of the Earth, which is a direct consequence of the latitudinal insulation gradient. He explains that meridianal transport moves energy from the latitudes with net gain to those with net loss and that the energy deficit created by reduced insulation towards the poles creates a latitudinal temperature gradient. He also mentions that the IPCC's climate models are inadequate and that we need to look to the planet's past climate history to better understand how the Earth's climate system works.
• 00:10:00 In this section, it is explained that Earth’s climate has varied greatly throughout history, with the latitudinal temperature gradient being a fundamental climate variable. The presentation compares the current Severe Ice House temperature gradient with the Early Eocene Hot House gradient from 52 million years ago. The speaker notes that the way energy is distributed and transported on Earth during the Early Eocene climate creates a paradox that modern consensus climatology cannot solve. Finally, it is explained that the Earth is currently in a Severe Ice House climate with a very steep latitudinal temperature gradient, which is relatively rare in Earth’s history.
• 00:15:00 In this section, the video discusses the equable climate problem, which refers to the failure of modern consensus climate theory to explain the warm climate of the early eocene, characterized by a low latitudinal temperature gradient, low seasonality, and above-freezing winter polar conditions. This problem arises because climate models have difficulty explaining how more heat was transported to warmer poles while maintaining a reduced latitudinal temperature gradient and reduced meridianal transport. To reproduce early eocene warm continental interior temperatures and above-freezing winter polar temperatures, models would have to raise CO2 levels to 4700 PPM and use an unrealistic climate sensitivity to CO2. However, the best CO2 estimates for this period suggest probable levels of 500 to 1000 PPM. Additionally, with temperatures exceeding the maximum level that mammals can survive, it is unlikely that tropical temperatures exceeded 30 degrees C.
• 00:20:00 In this section, Andy May discusses how the IPCC's CO2-driven climate models are inadequate because they overlook the impact of clouds and their variability on the climate, which remains uncertain. Climate scientists mistake that changes in meridianal transport cannot cause climate change, although the atmosphere can move a great amount of energy quickly and efficiently over the surface of the Earth. Angular momentum exchanged between the solid earth Ocean and the atmosphere due to changes in wind direction and speed affects Earth's rotation speed and thus affects the planet's temperature. The basic 11-year solar cycle also affects the speed of Earth's rotation.
• 00:25:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the correlation between solar activity and the average atmospheric angular momentum. Solar climate correlations appeared to have reversed around 1920, causing confusion, as a low sunspot number was thought to cause warmer weather before 1920. However, after the reversal in 1920, sunspots were positively correlated with warming. General circulation models predict Arctic amplification, but modern climatology has not answered why this was not observed before 1996 despite intense global warming. The speaker also notes that the Arctic and winter have no feedbacks to the greenhouse effect from CO2 due to almost zero water vapor and reduced cloud cover, causing an increased energy loss with reduced cloud cover. Arctic amplification is the consequence of increased meridianal transport, not the CO2-driven greenhouse effect, according to the speaker.
• 00:30:00 In this section, the speaker argues that the IPCC's CO2-driven climate models are inadequate in explaining Arctic warming as the region's negative annual energy budget means an increase in the greenhouse effect would not make it less negative. The speaker explains that winter warming in the Arctic can only result from an increase in the heat transported from lower latitudes, which is not exported back to the lower latitudes, leading to temperature inversions and continued radiative cooling. The frequency of mid-latitude cold Winters has increased since Arctic amplification started, which the models cannot explain. The speaker also discusses how changes in global solar activity affect Earth's climate, and Arctic summer temperatures do not change much. He further explains that geologists use Vladimir Copen's climate belts methodology to reconstruct past global average temperatures, which have a low temporal resolution and determine one global average surface temperature per 5 million years.
• 00:35:00 In this section, the speaker discusses how the IPCC's CO2-driven climate models, which have been in use for over 40 years, are inadequate and cannot explain all of the complex factors that contribute to climate change. The models cannot explain why there has been an increase in cold mid-latitude winters or why mammalian diversity increased during the early Eocene period, which was 10 degrees warmer than today. Moreover, the models cannot account for the lack of Arctic warming during the global warming peak between 1980 and 1997 but an increase in Arctic warming after 1997 when warming significantly slowed. The speaker posits that these problems alone invalidate the hypothesis that greenhouse gases alone cause climate change, and it is worrisome that the IPCC has not updated this hypothesis based on new discoveries such as multi-decadal ocean oscillations and their connection to solar activity.
• 00:40:00 In this section, Andy May discusses the impact of volcanism on climate and how it may have contributed to warming in northern Europe. He suggests that the pollutants from volcanoes that went into the Atlantic Ocean may have caused many mid-level foreign minifora to go extinct due to anoxic ocean conditions. He also believes that the main reason for the planet's warming was due to the land configuration and that the Pacific climate shift in 1976 was due to changes in the multi-decadal ocean oscillations. Andy May also presents Javier's hypothesis that predicts a cooling trend for the next 10 years, but warming would resume in the early 2030s, which won't be dangerous and will last for about 200 years before a major cooling trend starts up again. He also argues that CO2-driven climate models of the IPCC are inadequate and need to be updated.