Summary of Kenneth P. Green: The Plague of Models | Tom Nelson Pod #133

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

Kenneth P. Green discusses the prevalence of modeling in environmental science and public policy and highlights its limitations and potential negative consequences. He argues that many environmental models are speculative and disconnected from reality, leading to inaccurate predictions and misguided regulations. Green emphasizes that models are abstractions of complex systems and should not be mistaken for new information. He criticizes the overreliance on flawed models, particularly in issues like climate change, and calls for transparency and accessibility in scientific data and models to improve the grounding of policy in reality. Furthermore, he discusses the impact of regulations based on faulty models, such as less effective and more expensive household appliances, and advocates for a reassessment of current approaches. Green believes that society may have reached peaks in deception, belief in good intentions, gullibility, and cynicism, leading to a growing skepticism towards environmental narratives.

00:00:00 In this section, Kenneth P. Green shares his background in environmental science and public policy criticism. He explains that his interest in environmental issues stemmed from growing up in the smoggy San Fernando Valley of California, where air pollution was a serious problem. Green's personal experience with asthma and his mother's health issues led him to appreciate the clean desert air, sparking his fascination with biology and environmental science. This passion eventually led him to critique the disjunction between environmental policies and actual scientific evidence.
00:05:00 In this section, Kenneth P. Green discusses how he shifted from studying biological engineering to becoming more critical of environmental policy. He explains that early on, he questioned the basis of information presented to him and often asked "how do you know that?" He highlights the difference between deterministic modeling, which is based on physical law, and speculative modeling, which relies on assumptions. Green argues that many environmental models are speculative and that regulators have started using these models as evidence of reality, which he believes is problematic.
00:10:00 In this section, Kenneth P. Green discusses how computer modeling has replaced actual evidence in the development of environmental health and safety policies. In the 1970s, as regulations sought to address smaller risks, it became more difficult to conduct laboratory studies on larger populations. However, the rise of computer models, facilitated by tools like Excel and spreadsheets, provided a cheaper and faster alternative. This shift towards modeling permeated all aspects of policy and regulation, disconnecting them from reality. Green refers to this phenomenon as the "plague of models," as it has led to adverse consequences and disconnected policies from the systems they aim to protect. He also highlights that unlike experimental-based science, models are rarely checked against reality, leading to potential inaccuracies in modeling environmental harms like climate change and air pollution.
00:15:00 In this section, Kenneth P. Green discusses the issues with deterministic modeling and the reliance on models in various fields, such as medicine and climate science. Green argues that models are not always accurate representations of reality, and placing blind faith in them can have dangerous consequences. He also highlights the misleading nature of visual data representation, which can easily mislead people into drawing incorrect conclusions. Green quotes Freeman Dyson and John Von Neumann to support his argument that climate models are flawed and do not accurately describe the real world. Overall, Green suggests that the overreliance on flawed models is a major problem in our society today.
00:20:00 In this section, Kenneth P. Green discusses the problem with models and the nature of modeling. He explains that models are abstractions of data that help us understand complex systems like climate. However, every time you abstract data, you lose information. Models can only capture a few components of the system, and the assumptions made in selecting those components can be flawed. For example, cloud dynamics, which play a significant role in climate, are poorly understood and have not made much progress in terms of scientific understanding. The range of climate sensitivity, or how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gases, has also not been narrowed down significantly since the 1800s. Green emphasizes that models are not reality and should not be mistaken for new information.
00:25:00 In this section, Kenneth P. Green criticizes the use of models in government regulations, particularly when it comes to issues like climate change. He argues that while models can be useful tools for comparison and projection, they should not be treated as reflections of reality. Green highlights the concern that government policies based on speculative model outputs can lead to unnecessary coercion of individuals and restrict their personal freedoms without sufficient evidence of harm. As a libertarian, he believes that the government's role should be limited to preventing harm to others, rather than imposing regulations based on questionable models. Green also discusses his experience as an IPCC expert reviewer and expresses skepticism about the direction of future reports, noting a shift towards more exclusive reliance on projections and models.
00:30:00 In this section, Kenneth P. Green discusses the issue of assigning confidence levels to future climate predictions. He criticizes the subjective nature of these confidence levels, explaining that they are often based on the opinions of the original authors rather than on rigorous statistical testing. Green also highlights the views of physicist Freeman Dyson, who disagrees with the idea that extra trapped heat exists and questions the role of CO2 as the climate control knob. While Green agrees with physicists that energy balance is important, he believes that the greenhouse effect, caused by gases in the atmosphere trapping heat, is real to some extent.
00:35:00 In this section, Kenneth P. Green discusses the role of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in controlling the temperature of the atmosphere. He argues that while CO2 is one of the agents that can trap heat, there is a large question of uncertainty surrounding the strength of these agents and their concentrations. Green mentions that the IPCC reports show a shift in focus towards greenhouse gases, while other factors such as methane and nitrous oxide are discussed less. He also mentions the Federal Data Quality Act, which was originally introduced to ensure regulations are based on sound science but has since been weakened. Green advocates for transparency and accessibility in scientific data and models to justify regulations.
00:40:00 In this section, Kenneth P. Green discusses the lack of transparency in computer models used for regulation purposes. He argues that if models are not transparent and the data used is not available for re-inspection and validation, then they should not be used as evidence in legal proceedings. Green suggests implementing a federal data quality act that requires complete transparency of models and data for any regulatory process. He also emphasizes the need for warning labels on charts and graphs generated from computer models, stating that they should clearly indicate that the information is speculative and not an extrapolation of measured reality. Green believes that these measures would improve the grounding of policy in reality and reduce the negative impact of flawed models.
00:45:00 In this section, the speaker discusses how regulations based on energy use models have affected various household appliances, such as dishwashers and washing machines. These regulations, aimed at reducing energy consumption, have resulted in less effective and more expensive appliances. The move towards electric vehicles is also criticized, as they are unlikely to match the performance of traditional vehicles. The speaker argues that regulations based on faulty models have limited innovation and hindered technological advancements. Additionally, the use of ethanol as fuel is mentioned as another example of regulations based on modeling, which may have negative effects on engine performance. The speaker shares their personal experience and interest in using ethanol as an alternative fuel, but being unable to do so due to regulations.
00:50:00 In this section, Kenneth P. Green discusses the levels of air pollution in California compared to the 1970s. He states that the measured concentrations of pollutants in the air have significantly declined over the years, thanks to reduced emissions from cars. However, people still believe the air is polluted because government definitions for smog alerts have become tighter, causing even lower concentrations to trigger alerts. Green explains that occasional smoke during fire seasons is often mistaken for regular air pollution, further contributing to the perception. Despite these misconceptions, pollution levels in Los Angeles have improved significantly, with even the unattractive layer of gray haze in the San Fernando Valley being thinner and less toxic than before. Green also mentions that Ronald Reagan pointed out that a large part of California's pollution is due to trees releasing volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that react with sunlight to create smog. He concludes this section by suggesting that we may have passed the peak of climate alarmism and that it is unlikely to get worse from here.
00:55:00 In this section, Kenneth P. Green discusses the idea that we have reached peaks in several areas: the peak of deception, the peak of belief in good intentions, the peak of gullibility, and the peak of cynicism. He believes that people are starting to question the inconsistencies between what they are seeing in the environment and what scientists and environmentalists are telling them. Additionally, he mentions examples of environmentalists' actions that contradict their supposed intentions, leading to a lack of trust. Green also mentions that people may have reached peak cynicism, particularly in relation to COVID-19 and climate change, as a result of exaggerated predictions and a loss of belief in the sincerity of those promoting these narratives. However, he acknowledges that people have always been inherently gullible and that it is easier to convince them of something than to prove that they are being fooled. Ultimately, he hopes that we have reached peaks in these areas and that organizations like the IPCC may reconsider their approach.

01:00:00 - 01:05:00

Kenneth P. Green discusses the issue of relying too heavily on models in scientific research and policy decisions. He points out the limitations and risks associated with using models, emphasizing that they often oversimplify complex systems and can be influenced by personal bias. Green encourages a more cautious and critical approach to the use of models and suggests they should be viewed as tools rather than definitive representations of reality. He stresses the importance of considering alternative perspectives and gathering empirical data to validate and improve models.