Summary of Russia Prepares for Kherson Battle, Shoigu Calls West Defence Ministers, Discuss Alleged Dirty Bomb

00:00:00 - 00:50:00

The video discusses the potential for escalation in the conflict in Ukraine, specifically the possibility that Ukraine may use a dirty bomb. Western governments are reportedly concerned about the potential for escalation, but it is unclear if this is true. The U.S. government has apparently rejected Ukrainian demands for the supply of attackers missiles.

• 00:00:00 In his latest video, the independent analyst Patrick Henningsen discusses the potential reasons behind Russia's recent military movements in the Hearthstone region, and the potential implications of a potential Russian withdrawal. He argues that, given the lack of engagement on the part of the Russian regular army, it is increasingly likely that the Russians are preparing to abandon their son region. Additionally, he discusses the recent development of the dirty bomb threat, which has gained more momentum in recent days.
• 00:05:00 The video discusses Russia's preparations for a possible battle in Kherson, noting that regular Russian army troops stationed in the area numbered fewer than a thousand men as opposed to the nine thousand Ukraine was throwing into the battle. The video then discusses Russia's apparent withdrawal from the region, noting that while civilians are withdrawing, the Russians have done the same in other places when a town is expected to be subjected to heavy shelling by Ukraine.
• 00:10:00 The video discusses Russia's recent preparations for a battle in Kherson, which include construction of large pontoon bridges. Some media outlets have suggested that the bridges are being used to pull Russian forces away from the West Bank of the NEPA, but it is now apparent that this is not the case. The Russian Army is instead replacing the Light Airborne Infantry with regular units, which makes sense because these troops have been fighting for a long time and may be tired.
• 00:15:00 The video discusses the Russian military's preparations for a possible battle in the city of Kherson, where they are replacing airborne troops with regular infantry. It is unclear if this is a withdrawal or a rotation, but it is clear that the Russians are trying to rebuild their forces and improve their ability to fight on the front lines.
• 00:20:00 The video discusses recent events in the Ukraine, including reports of a withdrawal of Russian forces, the apparent intention of the Russians to close down an intelligence operation in Hearthstone City, and the continued deluge of reports from the deputy Russian appointed governor of the region, Kiril Stromous. It is suggested that these events point to a Russian decision to stand firm and fight.
• 00:25:00 The Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu put Russian regular military's losses at 6,000 men killed and said that Ukraine had suffered permanent losses of 100,000 killed, including both killed and wounded. He said the figure for killed was just over 60,000 and for wounded a little more than that. Shoigu said these figures are from memory and it is clear from reading his words that he was talking only about regular military. Ukrainian losses have increased since then in fact they have and perhaps given that Ukraine has been trying to conduct an offensive since the end of August, the rate of losses that Ukraine is suffering has now probably increased significantly.
• 00:30:00 The video discusses reports that Russia is preparing for a possible battle in Kherson, Ukraine. The reporter suggests that skepticism about the reports has diminished, but he still believes that a dirty bomb incident is unlikely. The reporter looks at the reconstruction of events and highlights that this whole thing started with an interview with a general about a week ago about a possible war using prohibited methods. At the time, the reporter thought that the general was referring to the attempt to breach the dam. However, the reporter is not sure that the attacks on the Nova Yakov Gadan would be prohibited methods. The reporter also discusses reports that Russian defense minister Sergey Shoigu called American defense secretary Lloyd Austin yesterday. The nature of the discussion between Shoigu and Austin is unclear, but it is clear that Shoigu and Austin agreed to maintain contacts. Finally, the reporter reports that Russian defense minister Sergey Shoigu called Turkish defense minister Ismet Yilmaz yesterday. The conversation is also unclear, but it is possible that Shoigu and Yilmaz agreed to maintain contacts.
• 00:35:00 Russia is preparing for a possible battle in Kherson region, where Ukrainian forces are said to be preparing to produce a dirty bomb. British defence minister Ben Wallace spoke to Russian officials about the issue and reassured them that the missile launch was the result of a technical breakdown.
• 00:40:00 In the video, Pointed out that if the dam were indeed breached, Novi at Kakov were indeed breached, and water levels in the Kakovka reservoir decreased, this could reduce water levels in the Zaporosia nuclear power plant. Ukraine has been shelling the nuclear power plant which, in and of itself, has the potential to create a dangerous incident. Given that Ukraine has been shedding the nuclear power plant, perhaps in a way that indirect way if you like, it might be planning to do it some other way. Some Russians might think that Ukraine is planning to do it some other way, by actually creating such a device. However, I'm not convinced that the Ukrainians have any such plans, and Ukraine, I hope and believe, knows that if he did deploy a dirty bomb and use it in that kind of fashion, certain Western Powers would know and even in Western governments, wanted to provide cover for Ukraine. Western militaries would be utterly shocked by such a move, and there would be intense internal pressure within Western governments to start dialing down support for Ukraine given what a reckless regime that would then visibly appear to be.
• 00:45:00 The video discusses the possibility that Ukraine is planning to use a dirty bomb, and Western governments are reportedly concerned about the potential for escalation. It is unclear if this is true, but it is interesting to note that the U.S. government has apparently rejected Ukrainian demands for the supply of attackers missiles.
• 00:50:00 The video discusses the conflict in Ukraine and the recent news that Western governments have given up on the oil price cap idea.