Summary of 假突破！BTC完美計劃，做空來得及？

00:00:00 - 00:15:00

The speaker discusses the possibility of false breakouts in both the US stock market and Bitcoin . The speaker analyzes the daily chart of the SPX index and points out that a potential false breakdown could affect the stock market and Bitcoin. The speaker stresses the importance of observing the market during the opening hours for potential trading opportunities. They explain that technical analysis of Bitcoin indicates that if it remains below a certain yellow line, it is likely to continue to drop but if it manages to break above this line, it may catch short sellers off guard and continue to rise. The speaker also highlights a significant volume point of control (POC) at a certain level, suggesting potential resistance if Bitcoin moves upwards. The speaker discusses a possible trading plan for both bullish and bearish scenarios, emphasizing the importance of being cautious and taking profits when appropriate. The speaker mentions their strategy for managing risk in case of further downward movement in the market, advising viewers to have a backup plan in case their original plan fails.

• 00:00:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the possibility of a false breakout in both the US stock market and Bitcoin. The speaker analyzes the daily chart of the SPX index and points out that while there is a bearish trend, it is not a strong signal yet. Moving on to the DXY dollar index, the speaker notes that a potential false breakdown could affect the stock market and Bitcoin. The speaker emphasizes the importance of watching the market during the opening hours, as a bounce back from the low point could indicate a false breakout. Looking at the futures market, the speaker observes a similar pattern of a potential false breakout. However, the speaker also advises caution as the futures market currently shows a bearish sentiment. The speaker concludes that trading decisions should be made based on further market consolidation or a possible recovery above certain levels.
• 00:05:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the potential scenarios for Bitcoin based on technical analysis. They explain that if Bitcoin remains below a certain yellow line, it is likely to continue to drop. However, if it manages to break above this line, it may catch short sellers off guard and continue to rise. The speaker suggests that the opening of the US stock market is a key time to watch for trading opportunities, particularly for those in the GMT+8 time zone. They advise observing the market dynamics and identifying key support and resistance levels. The speaker also mentions the possibility of a false breakout, where Bitcoin initially breaks above a level but then retraces. They stress the importance of being cautious and not overestimating the probability of such a breakout, but also recommend setting protective stop losses and potentially taking profits on short positions. The speaker believes there is about a 60% probability that Bitcoin will follow the original plan of a false breakout. They point to the technical analysis of the US dollar index as a key factor influencing Bitcoin's price movement. Additionally, the speaker highlights a significant volume point of control (POC) at a certain level, suggesting potential resistance if Bitcoin moves upwards. Lastly, they emphasize the importance of considering alternative viewpoints and staying alert to the ever-changing market conditions.
• 00:10:00 In this section, the speaker discusses a possible trading plan for both bullish and bearish scenarios. If the price drops to a lower level and breaks below, many traders may chase short positions. However, the speaker suggests taking profits on the first short position and potentially opening a long position as a hedge. The speaker also mentions the opportunity to short if the price retests the previous high and then breaks below it. In such a case, many short positions may have stop losses set above the previous high, providing a good setup for shorting. The speaker emphasizes the importance of being cautious and attentive, as the market can change at any time. They remind traders to remain disciplined and not to get carried away by short-term profits, as trading is a challenging and serious endeavor. The speaker ends by reiterating their trading plan from September, which involves buying at lower levels and selling at higher levels, with adjustments based on market conditions.
• 00:15:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the potential for further downward movement in the market and mentions their strategy for managing the risk. They indicate that if the price drops below a certain level, they will consider adding more positions but emphasize that they will take profits if the price starts to recover strongly. The speaker also briefly mentions the Ethereum market and advises viewers to be cautious and have their own plan in case the price continues to rise. They conclude by stating that their original plan remains unchanged but highlight the importance of having a backup plan in case the plan fails.