Summary of Oil Will Trade Flat To Down Until Biden Backs Down & China Re-Opens | Rory Johnston

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

Rory Johnston discusses the current oil market situation and predicts that prices will eventually revert to their normality. He cites a number of factors, including geopolitical events and a global oversupply, as reasons for the current market conditions.

  • 00:00:00 Rory Johnston discusses the current oil market situation, which he believes is due to a number of factors, including geopolitical events and a global oversupply. He predicts that the market will eventually clear and prices will revert to their normality.
  • 00:05:00 The video discusses oil prices and their relationship to global demand. Rory Johnston discusses how oil prices are currently in surplus, and how they could go lower still.
  • 00:10:00 The video discusses oil prices, which have been relatively flat recently. Rory Johnston points out that this is a bullish sign, as it means that the market is anticipating a decrease in prices. Johnston also explains the significance of backwardation, which shows that oil is currently more expensive to buy than to sell. He concludes that despite the current oversupply, the market is still frail and could continue to decline.
  • 00:15:00 Rory Johnston discusses how the oil market can be volatile, and how the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) could impact the market. He also mentions how the oil price could go down even more if China's demand decreases.
  • 00:20:00 The EU sanctions against Russia are set to go into effect, and while the market is uncertain about what will happen next, Rory Johnston believes that the market is justified in being volatile due to the large swings in oil prices caused by geopolitical events.
  • 00:25:00 The video discusses the implications of the current oil market situation and how it is likely to continue until Vice President Biden backs down and China reopens their doors to trade. Rory Johnston suggests a price cap to help reduce Russian income while still allowing barrels to flow through.
  • 00:30:00 According to this YouTube commentator, the reason that Russian crude has diminished flow into Europe is because Russia deliberately withheld gas in order to pressure the West. However, this tactic has backfired, as Europe has moved to find other sources of energy.
  • 00:35:00 In the video, Rory Johnston discusses the current market conditions for oil and gas. He points out that while the oil market has been trending down, the LNG trade has been growing. He also notes that since the US imported residual fuels, their production has been reduced, exacerbating the oil and gas crisis. Johnston notes that the gasoline market in the US is declining and that in China, driving has been reduced. He also notes that the coal market is increasing due to the increased use of coal for electricity.
  • 00:40:00 The author discusses how the relationship between oil, coal, and other commodities has changed due to global events, including the Russian invasion and China's economic slowdown. He also mentions that oil traders are reporting extremely low liquidity and that this is likely contributing to the recent volatility in the oil market.
  • 00:45:00 Rory Johnston discusses how oil will trade flat to down until Biden backs down and China re-opens markets. This will drain the money away from traders and commercial businesses, hurting the economy. Governments have been resorting to all-time high rescue packages in an effort to prop up markets, but they may not be able to continue doing this indefinitely.
  • 00:50:00 The author discusses the differences between oil and gas markets and how this has led to wide spread prices in the oil market. He also discusses the potential for oil prices to increase if Europe begins to outbid Asia for LNG cargos.
  • 00:55:00 In theory, a price cap on oil could help to stabilize prices and reduce impacts on the market. However, there are several challenges that need to be overcome in order to make this system work. These include ensuring that all participants in the market abide by the price cap, preventing arbitrage, and ensuring that the government captures the benefits of the arbitrage.

01:00:00 - 01:20:00

Rory Johnston, an economist and bank commodity specialist, shares his concerns about the current state of the oil market and how it might affect the overall economy. He warns that until the U.S. unemployment rate decreases to 3% or lower, oil prices will remain low. Johnston also warns that any change in oil demand growth is unlikely in the near future, and suggests that investors stay cautious in this environment.

  • 01:00:00 The author of the video discusses how the current proposal to reduce oil production in order to help reduce prices is a better answer than the current proposal being proposed, as it would reduce the amount of oil available to be sold on the open market. He also discusses the risks of Russia and Vladimir Putin interfering with the market in order to spite enemies, which could lead to the market being flooded with oil at a much slower rate.
  • 01:05:00 The speaker discusses how the oil market is growing at a slower pace due to cash flow discipline, production bottlenecks, and a weak US dollar. He thinks that the oil market will rebound in the near future, and investors should be prepared for volatile prices.
  • 01:10:00 The speaker discusses the current oil market and how it has been characterized by periods of oversupply and collapse, followed by periods of low supply and volatility. He predicts that the market will continue to be volatile until China reopens its markets and begins to grow again. He is bullish on crude oil, but cautious due to the China situation. He believes that a recession is likely in Europe and China, as well as the United States.
  • 01:15:00 Rory Johnston, an economist and bank commodity specialist, shares his concerns about the current state of the oil market and how it might affect the overall economy. He warns that until the U.S. unemployment rate decreases to 3% or lower, oil prices will remain low. Johnston also warns that any change in oil demand growth is unlikely in the near future, and suggests that investors stay cautious in this environment.
  • 01:20:00 The author of the video discusses how oil prices will remain flat to down until Biden backs down and China re-opens the market.

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