Summary of Predicting Game Success + Corporate Nonsense (Philosophy Friday #19)

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

The video discusses how game companies predict game success, noting that often a senior executive who has never made a game before makes the call. Adam Telfer argues that this process is often flawed because the right person is not making the decision. The video recommends focusing on the team and their previous successes in the industry as a way to increase the chance of success.

00:00:00 Adam Telfer discusses how game companies predict game success, noting that often a senior executive who has never made a game before makes the call. He argues that this process is often flawed because the right person is not making the decision.
00:05:00 The video discusses the importance of proving product market fit from the very beginning of a project, and goes on to discuss the different ways to do this. The author recommends focusing on the team and their previous successes in the industry. If a company is able to do this, it may be less likely to need to understand concepts about the genre or market they are entering.
00:10:00 In this video, Brett and JK discuss the importance of properly integrating game design with feedback from consumers. They also discuss the dangers of having a design by committee structure, and the importance of having a holistic vision for a game.
00:15:00 The author agrees with most research being flawed, but cites one example of research that was successful. The author also discusses how consumer insights can be valuable when the game is known to the player and when the player is feedback is qualitative and in-depth. The author warns that consumer insights can be less valuable when the game is unknown to the player or when the player is feedback is quantitative.
00:20:00 The video discusses how product validation is important, and how intuition can be a better predictor of success than surveys or numbers. It also discusses how trends in the world can influence decision-making, and how having a team with intuition can help a game stay on track.
00:25:00 The speaker discusses the idea that a company's intuition can never be larger than 20 percent of their success, and how this can be limiting in some cases. He talks about the importance of beta testing and consensus data in order to find innovative, contrarian ideas.
00:30:00 The speaker discusses how a company's organizational structure can limit its ability to be innovative, and how a startup environment is better suited to doing this. He also points out that a company's success in the new game of zero to one is often determined by the quality of its secret.
00:35:00 The video discusses how it is difficult to create a successful game in a corporate structure, as there is often pressure to make the game a success. It argues that, ideally, a separate team should make decisions about the game's development without bias.
00:40:00 The video discusses the concept and pre-production phases of game development, and how these phases are similar for most big game studios. It also describes the decision-making process, and how different companies may have different decision-making structures.
00:45:00 The video discusses the common green light processes used by game studios, and argues that these processes are often ineffective and full of politics. It also mentions the problem of high-stakes milestones and the importance of risk management.
00:50:00 The video discusses the idea that companies have a low success rate with new ideas, and that it is important to be realistic about this when starting a business. The main points are that prediction ability goes up over time, and that it is important to de-risk a business in order to have a better chance of success.
00:55:00 Adam discusses the concept of success and how it can be predicted. He feels that in cases where a concept is obvious, such as in the case of Battle Royale, testing can validate the concept early on. However, in cases where a concept is less obvious, such as in the case of a new game genre, testing may not be possible until after development has begun. Adam also discusses the difference between Chinese and Western companies in terms of their confidence in a concept. Chinese companies seem to base their confidence in a concept more from intuition than from past success.

01:00:00 - 01:15:00

This video discusses the importance of intuition in game development, the difference between a company that has an "obsession with the genre," and a company that is "obsessed with the execution," and the importance of having a creative team together in order to pursue a successful concept and prototype phase.