Summary of UK U-turn | Bloomberg Surveillance 10/03/2022

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

The UK has reversed its decision to cut taxes for high earners, after facing criticism from lawmakers. The move is likely to cause increased volatility in markets, as investors worry about the UK's fundamentals. The Fed is still committed to creating a softer labor market and moving the unemployment rate up.

  • 00:00:00 The UK U-turn is a policy reversal announced by the UK government that has caused the GBP to decline in value. The market reacted negatively to the announcement, as the fundamentals of the UK are not looking good. The Bank of England has already spent 65 billion on gilt sales, and the UK LDA pension crisis is still looming. There are elections in the US in November, but it is unclear what effect this will have on the market.
  • 00:05:00 The UK is turning towards a more interventionist fiscal policy in order to combat high inflation and unemployment. The budget announced by the Chancellor included a cut in the top rate of income tax, as well as cuts to benefits for people who are not trying hard enough to find a job. Glenn Beck, who is in the UK for a Conservative Party conference, discusses the budget with guest Lizzie Borden.
  • 00:10:00 The U.K. has reversed its decision to reduce taxes for high earners, averting a rebellion by lawmakers. The price of oil jumped, indication of a potential OPEC+ cut to revive plunging prices. The U.K. heads into a presidential election with two candidates vying for the presidency.
  • 00:15:00 The video discusses the UK's recent change of heart regarding surveillance, focusing on the Birmingham metropolitan area. It points out that small caps have been underperforming relative to large caps, and that Nike, FedEx, and Apple are all absent from the morning trading session. It discusses how corporations are reacting to the downturn, with Nike emphasizing the potential for a quick turnaround, FedEx warning of possible declines in transactions, and Apple citing the midterm elections as a potential catalyst.
  • 00:20:00 The transcript excerpt above includes commentary from RBC Capital Markets' Laurie Campbell regarding the UK's recent U-turn on surveillance and other events. Campbell notes that earnings season is officially kicking off with JP Morgan's October 14th earnings report, with important implications for markets and the economy as a whole. She also predicts that the volatility seen in markets in the past week is likely to continue, and that the Fed is still committed to creating a softer labor market and moving the unemployment rate up.
  • 00:25:00 The author of the video discusses how the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and Bank of Indonesia may all slow down or stop if job growth does not slow down. The author also notes that the Fed may need job growth to slow to 100,000 per month in order to pause.
  • 00:30:00 British Prime Minister Liz Truss has reversed her plan to reduce taxes for the UK's highest earners, after facing criticism from the public and fellow politicians.
  • 00:35:00 The British government has U-turned on plans to abolish the 45-day rule for tax returns, after concerns were raised about the impact on the economy. The new forecast shows that European natural gas demand will decline next year, but supply restraints will keep markets tight. Credit Suisse is reporting that 360 credit suites have been downgraded in Swiss trading, and David Harrow, a major shareholder, says that the best guess is that the bank will divestitures and asset sales.
  • 00:40:00 The market is positive, but investors are worried about global growth and the UK's fundamentals. This has led to a pullback in the stock market.
  • 00:45:00 The video discusses the current market conditions and how they may impact future economic activity. It also covers the current situation in the UK and how the UK government is struggling to return to London. Finally, the video discusses the Fed's recent policy announcements and how they may impact the market.
  • 00:50:00 The author discusses the current environment and how it affects the stock market. He also discusses the Fed's upcoming speech and how investors are reacting. He mentions that bonds could potentially do better in a downturn, and that stocks and bonds are currently down together.
  • 00:55:00 The UK has reversed its tax cuts for high earners, and the cost of insuring Credit Suisse's bonds against default has increased. The ECB is struggling to fix the eurozone's problems on its own, and governments are needed to stimulate the economy. In Brazil, voters will choose between President Jaya Bozo Neto and his leftist rival, former President Lula da Silva. Europe's problems continue as Madrid is named the best museum in the world and Spain is booming.

01:00:00 - 02:00:00

The video discusses the recent UK U-turn and how it has impacted the markets. It discusses the IMF letter that was the catalyst for the reversal, and how markets seem to be dictating policy responses. There is a larger question about whether markets are dictating fiscal policymakers' responses, and whether they're getting the okay to come out aggressively against this move because of the move in markets and the threat to financial stability.

  • 01:00:00 The UK government has reversed its stance on reducing taxes for the wealthy, a move that is seen as a positive sign for financial stability and fairness. In addition, Europe is facing a number of challenges, including an escalation in the war and an escalation in the energy war. The outlook for Europe is challenging, but there are signs that progress is being made.
  • 01:05:00 The video discusses the recent UK U-turn and how it has impacted the markets. The letter from the IMF was the catalyst for this, and markets seem to be dictating policy responses. There is a larger question about whether markets are dictating fiscal policymakers' responses, and whether they're getting the okay to come out aggressively against this move because of the move in markets and the threat to financial stability.
  • 01:10:00 The FCC charged Kim Cardassian for touting on social media a crypto asset security offered and sold by E3 Max without disclosing the payment she received for the promotion. The SEC has found that she failed to disclose that she was paid 250000 to publish a post on her Instagram account about emacs tokens. The media is also responsible for not chasing the latest fad in financial markets and providing an audience for a couple of weeks. Deb Cunningham, global liquidity markets CIO at Federated Farmers, was absolutely thrilled about the charge. She said that it's a perfect time to speak to her about liquidity.
  • 01:15:00 The video discusses the recent price action in the UK bond market, which is not behaving in a typical manner for a bond market before an economic downturn. Lisa discusses that this could be due to the Fed's actions, such as their continued quantitative easing and their reduction in their balance sheet. Deborah provides a catch up with Lisa, who discusses the recent wild ride in the UK bond market and how it is unique to that market.
  • 01:20:00 The video discusses the challenges that banks in Europe are currently facing, including the need to cut costs and appease investors. It also discusses the possibility of a takeover of Credit Suisse, and the difficulty of regulating a bank with a diffuse cap and Swiss domestic statehood.
  • 01:25:00 The British government has reversed its decision to leave the European Union, following a wave of regulatory pressure. The market reacted negatively to the announcement, with stocks falling and credit default swaps (CDS) soaring. The bank's CEO said that the company is not in a "tough spot," despite having stock prices that are down significantly from where they were a year ago. The bank's competitive edge is questioned given the current market conditions.
  • 01:30:00 The UK announced that it will be raising its interest rates to 3 percent, which is in line with the ECB's policy of raising rates to prevent inflation from becoming too high. However, this news has not had a big impact on the bond market, as yields are moving relatively modestly. Equity markets are also relatively positive, although they are down by 9 percent from September.
  • 01:35:00 The video discusses the euro and the ECB's decision to front load into a recession in order to suppress yields in the periphery and raise rates to 3%. The author argues that the euro is not as strong as it was prior to coordinated global intervention, inflation is yet to be salary, and the US is unlikely to agree to transfer purchasing power from consumers. The author also notes that there is an issue with the new playbook of the ECB - which is to hike rates on the front end and buy bonds in the long end - as it might lead to market dampening mechanisms yet again.
  • 01:40:00 The British Prime Minister, Liz Truss, has done a U-turn, dropping a plan to cut taxes for the highest earners just 10 days after it was announced. It is an attempt for a trust to fend off a rebellion from lawmakers in her own Conservative Party. The price of oil jumped today, with indications that the OPEC plus alliance may slash production by more than a million barrels a day to revive plunging prices. In Brazil, the presidential election is headed for a runoff on October 30th. Voters will choose between President Jaya Bozo Neto and his leftist rival former President Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva. Reality show star and entrepreneur Kim Cardassian will pay almost one point three million dollars to settle latterly allegations that she illegally touted a crypto token. According to the S.E.C., Cardassian used social media to promote crypto assets security offered by the Shery Ahn Max. But she failed to disclose that she was paid two hundred fifty thousand dollars to do so. And TV channels owned by Walt Disney are back on Dish Network after a weekend blackout that left millions of DISH customers without access to networks like ESPN and ABC. In a statement Disney said it has reached a tentative agreement with DISH that reflects fair market value for its
  • 01:45:00 The author discusses the Fed's current monetary policies, noting that Fed officials seem to be focusing on the Fed funds rate as part of the tightening cycle rather than looking at other factors, such as the dollar, which are having a negative impact on the rest of the world. He also points out that there are problems with the economy that could lead to the Fed being unable to stop the onset of a recession.
  • 01:50:00 Jeffrey Sachs, an economist at Columbia University, discusses the potential for war between Russia and the United States. He believes that the conflict goes back a long time, and that it began in 2014 rather than 2022. He also shares his thoughts on the current situation in Ukraine, and how the media has portrayed the conflict.
  • 01:55:00 The presenter discusses the concerns over U.S. actions, including the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline, and the potential for hyperinflation and military intervention in Europe. They also discuss the lack of trust between allies and the instability of the current geopolitical climate.

02:00:00 - 02:10:00

The UK government has reversed its decision to cut taxes for the highest earners, just 10 days after announcing the plan. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak says the tax cut had become a distraction and that the government has listened to the public outcry. This comes as the OPEC+ group is set to produce a million barrels of oil a day, with Saudi Arabia and Russia in the spotlight.

  • 02:00:00 British Prime Minister Liz Truss has dropped a plan to cut taxes for the UK's highest earners, just 10 days after it was announced. Chancellor of the Exchequer quasi-Gauteng tank says the tax cut plan had become a distraction. In a tweet he wrote, "We get it and we have listened."
  • 02:05:00 A million barrels of oil a day will be produced in the OPEC+ group on Friday, with the focus on Saudi Arabia and Russia. Bruce Kurzman from J.P. Morgan predicts that the labor market is slowing, and World Kennedy discusses the path of OPEC+.
  • 02:10:00 On October 3, 2022, the UK announced that it would be u-turning its earlier accusation that Russia was responsible for the Skripal poisoning. The conversation raised concerns about escalatory behavior between Russia and the UK, as well as the impact of the UK's changing energy needs on the global market.

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