Summary of Raoul Pal & Juliette Declercq: A Soft Landing is POSSIBLE!

00:00:00 - 00:45:00

Raoul Pal and Juliette Declercq discuss the possibility of a soft landing for the stock market, noting that equities are likely to outperform other investments in the coming months. If a soft landing does not happen, Pal predicts that stocks could rebound even higher in the near future.

• 00:00:00 Juliette Declercq, a macro analyst and trader, discusses her belief that the United States is approaching a soft landing, which could lead to increased consumer spending and stronger economic growth.
• 00:05:00 The author of the video discusses how the Federal Reserve may be getting inflation wrong, and how this may be playing out in the market currently. He also shows two charts that illustrate his point. The first chart shows inflation lagging indicators such as retail sales and core CPI, while the second shows how inflation is responding to supply and demand shocks. Both charts show that inflation is returning to 2% with the same lag as it went up 15%. The author suggests that markets are waiting for the 10-year Treasury note to reach its equilibrium price, which is likely to happen in the next month or so.
• 00:10:00 The YouTube video discusses Raoul Pal's prediction that a soft landing is possible in the United States, based on the recent increase in real rates and tightness in financial conditions. Pal believes that the economy is weak, but not weak enough to warrant a major recession. He recommends that investors rebalance their portfolios in a relatively easy way.
• 00:15:00 The video discusses the soft landing hypothesis, which posits that the stock market will experience a gradual decline, followed by a period of tight monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The soft landing could happen anytime between now and the end of 2023, and would be accompanied by a neutral nominal yield and a reduction in liquidity.
• 00:20:00 The speaker discusses the potential for a soft landing in the housing markets, which would mean a return to normal prices and gradual monetary tightening without a collapse in the economy. He thinks equities are a better bet than US stocks, and expects the dollar to strengthen in the next few months.
• 00:25:00 Raoul Pal and Juliette Declercq discuss the European economy's vulnerability to energy and commodity price spikes, and how a Fed that does not pivot could lead to an inflationary depression in Europe.
• 00:30:00 The video discusses the risks associated with Europe's economic situation, which include deflation and job loss. Raoul Pal believes that compromises will have to be made in order to avoid a more severe outcome.
• 00:35:00 The author discusses how equities may outperform talk about a devaluation of currencies, and how commodities are pricing in U.S. dollars, which is unfavorable for the UK. The author also notes that the Euro has further to decline, and that gold may be an effective hedge against competitive devaluations.
• 00:40:00 Raoul Pal and Juliette Declercq discuss the possibility of a soft landing for the stock market, noting that equities are likely to outperform other investments in the coming months. If a soft landing does not happen, Pal predicts that stocks could rebound even higher in the near future.
• 00:45:00 Raoul Pal, a financial analyst and commentator, believes that the United States economy is likely to avoid a recession and that equities will do well. She also has a different view of the European and Chinese economies, believing that they will have to run negative real interest rates in order to keep their currencies from weakening. Finally, she discusses gold, predicting that it will do well in a competitive environment where other currencies are developed.