Summary of Crise financière: la descente aux enfers? Gaël Giraud, Raphaël Rossello & Gilles Raveaud [EN DIRECT]

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

A discussion between multiple guests touches on various issues related to the financial crisis, starting with the potential consequences of water scarcity due to climate change, and the role of the government in masking or delaying the crisis. They discuss the social anger in France towards the government's short-term clientelistic approach, lack of socio-perception among the elite, and potential solutions to the ecological crisis, especially the transition to renewable energy. The guests argue that financial markets have become like pagan gods who countries need to please to avoid economic destruction, and this shift in power has resulted in the loss of principles of equality before the law. The lack of economic education in society and the negative effects of unregulated globalization on society are also discussed. Finally, the speakers explore the possibility of a financial crisis, with the current debt levels and the role of debt being analyzed as major contributing factors to the tension, and advocate regulating financial markets through decisive action by policymakers.

00:00:00 In this section, the three guests introduce themselves and discuss the topic of the financial crisis and its potential consequences for the average person. Raphaël Rossello expresses his belief that a crisis is coming and that the COVID-19 pandemic and Vladimir Putin are two viruses that have concealed the economic situation. Gael Giraud explains that while he has hope for the youth of today, they will face unique challenges that could lead to the extinction of humanity if climate change continues. Gilles Ravoux adds to the conversation by reflecting on the strange weather patterns, noting that we are experiencing a loss of reference points and a failure to recognize the realities of the climate situation.
00:05:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the pressing issue of water scarcity and the alarming probability that Europe, and France in particular, could lose access to 20% of its potable water within 20 years due to climate change. Gilles Raveaud expresses concern that the government isn't doing enough to prevent this crisis and proposes the creation of a water bank that finances the renovation of water infrastructure in rural areas, something that Veolia had proposed a decade ago. Raphaël Rossello, however, is worried more about the immediate social and human impacts that could happen in two to three years due to possible water scarcity. He emphasizes the centrality of humans and their well-being within any ecological agenda.
00:10:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the role of the government in masking or delaying the financial crisis, which is ultimately creating a world that is artificial and unsustainable. The current government is not taking appropriate actions to address the real issues behind inflation, such as access to cheap energy and the need for accelerating the energy transition. They are content with a tariff shield, which does not solve anything. Meanwhile, the social crisis in France is getting worse with 12 million people living in energy poverty and 42,000 homeless children. The government's inaction is creating a ticking social bomb that may explode anytime, which is causing panic and denial among the politicians. The previous Gilets Jaunes movement was the biggest social movement in post-war France, which shook Emmanuel Macron, and the government used violent means to disperse the protesters.
00:15:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the social anger in France due to the government's policies, highlighting the short-term clientelistic approach adopted by Emmanuel Macron, which involves spending public money to buy social peace. The lack of effort to recover some of the expenses through progressive taxation and the advantages of fuel price reductions that benefit high-income earners are a big concern. The government predicts a deficit of 150 billion euros for the national budget for 2023, but the current debt level is already exploding, which could lead to an increase in taxes in the future. The speaker questions why there is not more opposition against the government's spending policies and calls out Bruno Le Maire, nicknamed "Hermes," for the government's handling of the situation.
00:20:00 In this section, a former Rothschild executive describes the corporate culture as extremely proud and having a conceptual coherence which lacks practicality. He explains that these executives are so focused on their vision that they struggle with the concept of rationality and “common sense”. The problem, according to him, is that they become confined to their concepts and reject any new or contradictory information. He also implies that Emmanuel Macron, whom he worked with closely, is not interesting and merely executes a plan created by David de Rothschild, which is to privatize the entire world and destroy the social state. He argues that the apparent nationalization of EDF may actually be a part of this plan, with proposals likely to dismantle the company and privatize everything that is to be gained from it.
00:25:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the shift towards neoliberalism and the lack of socio-perception among the elite, emphasizing the victory of neoliberals in claiming to be on the side of freedom. They point out the difficulty of simple terms in political discourse to articulate clear notions, such as not being able to call Emmanuel Macron a right-wing conservative, nor the neoliberals out for betraying the idea of liberty. They also emphasize that France is still a rich country, despite the rhetoric regarding national debt, deficit, and healthcare costs circulating among its politicians and the public. They point out that the country's political elite fails to recognize this fact.
00:30:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the potential solutions to the ecological crisis, specifically the transition to renewable energy, such as the renovation of buildings, utilization of green mobility, and the green industry. They mention that in France, there are scientific, economic, and technical means to achieve this. However, they argue that the country has lost its means of controlling its destiny with the construction of the European Union, and by adopting the post-liberalism doctrine that replaces the freedom, equality, and fraternity principles of liberalism with the power of financial markets. They criticize the French government's inability to execute a complete decarbonization plan and the enforcement of environmental laws, which they see as an act of death to French liberalism.
00:35:00 In this section, Gilles Raveaud, an economist, discusses how financial markets have become like pagan gods that countries must please in order to avoid complete economic destruction, with the markets holding a power over countries that places them above even the nation's government. He argues that this shift in power dynamic has allowed for a system of injustice where a select few gain power at the expense of the majority, and the principles of equality before the law have been lost. Additionally, the privatization of public goods by the government has been allowed to go unchallenged, and the creation of wealth through financial speculation rather than the production of goods and services has become more and more commonplace in today's society.
00:40:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the lack of economic education in society, particularly in schools and colleges. They argue that this creates a problem as individuals are unable to fully understand the basic economic mechanisms and therefore cannot participate in discussions on the subject. The discussion touches on the history of financial deregulation, highlighting the role of solutions that were meant to be temporary but that became permanent fixtures. The section concludes with a discussion on the negative effects of unregulated globalization on society.
00:45:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the conflict between globalization and democracy, particularly in the European Union where states have ceded their sovereignty to the greatest extent. They also mention the economic illiteracy of some professionals, including economists, who teach theories that are incomplete and do not reflect the reality of inefficient incomplete markets. The talk touches on Emmanuel Macron's recent statement about supporting European industry, which is impossible due to the EU's competition laws that prohibit the creation of European champions in any sector. They warn against the dangers of a world without rules and regulation, which is driving the rise of extreme right-wing movements across Europe and beyond.
00:50:00 In this section, the speakers discuss how the financial sector has become overly sophisticated and mathematized, with a migration of talented graduates from top engineering schools towards finance rather than building bridges or developing new medicines. This has resulted in a globalized ecosystem of bankers, investors, lawyers, and accountants who consider material wealth as true freedom. The speakers express concern that politicians are powerless to control the enormous, massive and inertial monster that has been created, as the financial system is over-stretched and hypertensive, and if one small part fails, it could trigger a wider collapse.
00:55:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the possibility of a financial crisis and the role of debt, which is currently at 300% of the world's GDP. They believe that the current system is under tension and that a significant event such as a financial crash may be necessary to reset the economy. However, they also argue that this crash could be avoided through the regulation of financial markets, including the separation of investment banks from traditional banks. They criticize a law introduced in France that was meant to do this, but failed to separate the activities of these banks, suggesting that to avoid a financial disaster, policymakers must take decisive action to regulate the financial system.

01:00:00 - 02:00:00

The panel in this YouTube discussion considers various options to tackle the current financial crisis, including the separation of banks and the implementation of regulations to prevent market exploitation and the collapse of financial institutions. The speakers discuss the erosion of prosperity and sense of precarity that have affected democracy, emphasizing the need for a new economic system that prioritizes green energy and communities' control over their energy production. They also address the issues of social inequality and the myth of the "welfare queen" in France, warning against reducing the time frame for receiving unemployment benefits as it led to working poverty and lower wages in Germany. The panel also advocates for a transition to renewable energy, noting its economic and ecological benefits.

01:00:00 In this section, the panel discusses potential solutions to the current financial crisis. They suggest the separation of banks, regulation of financial markets, and securing of clearing houses as potential ways to prevent the domino effect of financial collapse. They recommend increasing the current 3% fund requirement for banks to 20% and rewriting Balle 3 to penalize banks with brown credit and favor those with green credit. The panel suggests that these steps can be taken to regulate the markets and prevent future financial crises.
01:05:00 In this section, Gilles Raveaud discusses the issue of complacency among the privileged in France. He highlights the fact that many people who come from privileged backgrounds have the time and resources to make a difference by getting involved in politics, but instead choose to focus on their own leisure activities. Raveaud argues that this is not an attitude that can be sustained in the face of the declining democracy and cataclysmic events that he believes lie ahead. He encourages people to look at the bigger picture and take action, rather than simply giving money to their grandchildren and retiring without a second thought.
01:10:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the relationship between prosperity and democracy, and how the erosion of prosperity has led to a sense of precarity that is affecting democracy. They note that in the Western world, there has been a historical link between economic prosperity and democratic progress, and that the current erosion of prosperity has led to a fatigue with democracy. They also point out how this sense of precarity comes from the extravagance and inequality that have characterized the economic growth of the past few decades. Moreover, they caution against dividing people even more and making a division between the generations by pointing to how, historically, a division of society often precedes an attack on its democracy. Finally, they emphasize the importance of developing a new economic system that does not rely on fossil fuels, as well as one that is not dominated by banks and financial markets, but that gives communities more control over their own energy production.
01:15:00 In this section, the speakers discuss two options for the decentralization of energy production and the relationship with democracy. The first option is a decentralized production model that encourages community participation and democracy. The second option is a very centralized and authoritarian one, which involves private capital that disregards democracy and social justice. The speakers turn to the slow pace of ecological transition in Western societies, arguing that part of the hesitation of elites in supporting decentralized models may be due to their attraction to the second option, which would move away from democracy. They caution against the dangers of politicians like Eric Zemmour, who install a rhetoric of enemies that results in violence against vulnerable populations and distracts from important issues such as food insecurity and energy production.
01:20:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the dangers of tribalizing public discourse and scapegoating certain groups in response to the ecological and social crises caused by the deregulation of natural resources. They point out the complicity of the Commission européenne and the left in promoting globalization without addressing its negative impact on the middle class. They argue that people need to confront the real issues of maintaining energy resources and mitigating the effects of climate change, instead of simply finding scapegoats for problems. They discuss how the left's failure to address these issues could lead to a dangerous erosion of democracy.
01:25:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the unique social model of Sweden, where high taxes were utilized for the benefit of the entire population, resulting in low income inequality. However, the influx of migrants during times of crisis brought about a resurgence in racist sentiment fueled by media and right-wing parties. The discussion then shifts to the importance of addressing the issue of social inequality and the divide between generations. Unfortunately, despite the reduction of social rights, many individuals still support such policies, which underlines the lack of solidarity among citizens in society. The section ends with a reference to Angus Deaton's book, "Deaths of Despair," which highlights how the decline in psychological well-being in America coincides with a decrease in income to below €1500 per month, a situation affecting one-third of its population, which may be relevant to the current situation in France.
01:30:00 In this section, the speakers discuss several issues surrounding the financial crisis and its impact on society. They mention the emergence of racist ideas in Sweden, which may be a result of the growing number of elderly citizens living in poverty. The speakers also address the myth of the "welfare queen" in France, stating that 60% of unemployed individuals do not receive unemployment benefits. They argue that the current proposal to reduce the time frame for receiving unemployment benefits would be disastrous, as it was in Germany, leading to an increase in working poverty and a deflation of wages. Finally, they criticize the social democratic party for their misguided belief in the financial markets as an alternative to the class struggle, arguing that this thinking led to the globalization of trade and the extreme inequality we see today.
01:35:00 In this section, Gilles Raveaud denounces the imposition of the word "growth" as a compass in the economy. He argues that there was no word for "growth" before 1815 and that it replaced the concept of prosperity. Additionally, he maintains that the economy's downfall began in 1970 as data shows a decline in growth and a period of credit-led growth. Raveaud emphasizes the absence of true growth and wealth creation, resulting in a rise of disparities in society. He argues for the organization of life to welcome others, but critics may condemn him as a Bolshevik for his beliefs as a Christian on the left.
01:40:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the recent awarding of the Nobel prize to Paul Romer, William Nordhaus and the duo of Diamond and Pissarides. They start by calling out Paul Romer for his previous failure to predict the 2008 financial crisis, and instead lauding a false sense of economic stability in the United States. They then move on to critique the model of Diamond and Pissarides, pointing out that this model lacks the inclusion of money in the banking system. The speakers also dive into the importance of different models of banking and monetary systems, as suggested by the ongoing discussions about debt repayment.
01:45:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the false concept that banks create money out of nothing, which has been perpetuated despite being debunked by economists. They also criticize the politics of fear employed by Emmanuel Macron in creating a sense of unease and lack of security among the populace in order to have greater control, which they assert is detrimental to the democracy and well-being of society. They reference the work of Beveridge, a liberal economist who believed that the state's responsibility was to ensure that people were not afraid of their futures or their neighbors, and that employment was a fundamental liberty, while ownership of companies was not. The speakers point to the experience of the 1930s crisis and the victory of the US over the Nazis as evidence of the need for state intervention and planning, rather than the free market.
01:50:00 In this section, one of the speakers discusses the concept of transitioning to a more environmentally friendly lifestyle and how this can actually benefit individuals in multiple ways. By consuming less meat, biking more instead of driving, and other simple changes, individuals can improve their physical and mental health, and also live a more cost-effective life. However, this idea is challenged by the issue of globalisation that often causes countries to compete with each other, leading to the notion that it would be difficult for France to adopt such a model without being overpowered by other more competitive countries. The speaker introduces the idea of a two-sector economy that allows for a competitive sector that focuses on exporting highly researched goods and another sector that generates wealth to fund a robust social state. He gives the example of Sweden, which at one time was arguably the most advanced country in terms of state welfare and economic growth.
01:55:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the notion of value and the creation of money, pointing out that the artificial value of the financial system has never truly existed. They also touch on the topic of sobriety and the promotion of a more cooperative and associative economic sector in order to apportion funds to the economy. The importance of transitioning to renewable energy is emphasized, not only from an ecological standpoint but also from an economic one, as each French household could save up to 1500 euros per year.

02:00:00 - 02:50:00

I apologize, I made a mistake in my previous response. Here is the summary for "Crise financière: la descente aux enfers? Gaël Giraud, Raphaël Rossello & Gilles Raveaud [EN DIRECT]": In this YouTube discussion, speakers Gaël Giraud, Raphaël Rossello, and Gilles Raveaud discuss the current financial crisis and its impact on society. They advocate for a transition to a more environmentally-friendly and socially responsible economy, highlighting flaws in current economic indicators such as GDP growth and the need for policies that address long-term ecological constraints. They also discuss the issue of inflation and the reluctance of those in power to allow it to happen, arguing that it could ease financial burdens on those struggling but lead to panic among investors. The speakers recommend books and advice for the younger generation, encouraging greater consciousness and responsibility towards society and the environment.

02:00:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the importance of transitioning to a more environmentally-friendly society and how it can lead to better social conditions. They argue that economic indicators such as GDP growth are not as important as factors like education, quality of life, and healthy life expectancy. Regarding inflation and economic crises, the speakers note that while inflation can be a problem, people in the past were able to live with it if their salaries increased at a corresponding rate. However, there is now panic in the investment world about the potential impacts of inflation.
02:05:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the issue of inflation and the reluctance of those in power to allow it to happen, despite the fact that it could ease the pain of the current financial crisis. They explain how inflation could ease the burden on those who are struggling financially, and how there is a fear among those in power that it could cause a ripple effect that would be detrimental to the economy. The speakers also highlight the flaws in the current system for measuring economic output, which fails to take into account the rising costs of housing, making it difficult for young people to find affordable accommodation in some cities.
02:10:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the need to recognize the material constraints posed by environmental and energy limitations and to reevaluate the idea of progress. They point out that inflation leads to rationing and an inability to purchase the same amount of goods as before, and note the French reluctance to acknowledge material reality. They also criticize government measures that fail to address long-term ecological constraints, such as the temporary nature of plans to reduce electricity usage for commercial signs. The speakers also examine technical aspects of measuring inflation, such as the calculation of real GDP, and the need for wages to keep up with inflation.
02:15:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the possibility of central banks having a higher inflation target, as currently, the anti-inflation phobia prevalent in some countries leads to high unemployment. The focus then shifts to the example of Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, who raised interest rates to tackle inflation, which resulted in a significant increase in unemployment. The speakers also criticize recent decisions by the current Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, to increase interest rates, which they argue has no effect on inflation caused by ecological, energy, and diplomatic factors. The discussion highlights the need for more informed policies to address inflation, rather than relying on simplistic approaches tied to fixed targets.
02:20:00 In this section, the contributors discuss the artificial creation of value and the inflation of financial assets, which they believe was bound to lead to an inflationary process. They highlight the absurdity of the salaries of those in the financial industry compared to those in the real economy and emphasize the mistake made by the monetarists in the past, who believed that inflation was a monetary phenomenon caused by an increase in money circulation. They also criticize the media for reporting on price increases without mentioning the individuals responsible for the price hikes, pointing to the lack of democratic accountability in the economic system. However, they conclude that inflationary spirals are unlikely to occur today due to globalization and the need to maintain demand for products.
02:25:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the concept of agents in economics, which distinguishes between those who are price takers and those who are price makers. They explain that companies like Renault can no longer set their own prices due to intense global competition, and thus will struggle to compete with the electric cars coming out of China, which will be subsidized by the French government. Additionally, the panel points out that there is heightened competition among workers due to the prevalence of job insecurity in the global labor market, and that the old spiral of wage increases in response to increased prices is no longer a viable solution due to natural resource constraints. Finally, they argue that the current system, left to its own devices, will lead to a brutal drop in productivity if it continues to conflict with natural resource constraints.
02:30:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the potential implications of reaching the peak of oil extraction worldwide and the impact it could have on the economy. They highlight the need for control over prices in France, suggesting that the "bouclier qualité prix" could be extended to the mainland, and the European Commission may propose a price block on energy. They warn of the potential for inflation and a deterioration of the economy, as seen in Lebanon, if no action is taken to transition towards renewable energy. The speakers also discuss the possibility of France leaving the Euro, but Gaël Giraud emphasizes that he has never worked in asset management and therefore refrains from providing advice.
02:35:00 In this section, the speakers discuss the issue that socially useful production of goods and services is no longer sufficient to ensure social cohesion, with an equivalent of 30% of unemployed people in France. To avoid the disaster of "Lebanization," the speaker recommends breaking free from the obsolete GDP growth and focusing on socially useful activity instead. The speaker believes that the purpose of a company is to respond to the needs and expectations of all stakeholders, including customers, suppliers, employees, shareholders, and the local community. The government and the European Community should make economic responsibility in harmony with the needs and aspirations of the next three years a priority. The speakers also recommend three books for the younger generation to read and give a piece of advice, and the discussion concludes with a message from Gilles.
02:40:00 In this section, the speakers recommend some books and give advice to the younger generation on how to prevent mental distress as a result of the current financial crisis. They suggest reading "Debt: The First 5,000 Years" by David Graeber, "Transition in South Africa" by Mark Welling, and a report on European banks' fossil fuel assets by the Institut Rousseau. They also recommend engaging in eco-friendly activities, such as permaculture, and reading Francis Fukuyama's "The End of History," "Discourse on Voluntary Servitude" by La Boétie, and a book on the "Memoirs of Christopher Columbus's Son." The speakers encourage the younger generation to be conscious of their servitude and to take steps to prevent the loss of human potential, which they believe is related to the current financial crisis.
02:45:00 In this section, Gilles Raveaud suggests three must-read books: "Souriez, vous êtes français" by Bernard Maris, "Adieu à la croissance" by Jean Gadrey, and the "Vraie ou Fake" collection by Tana, specifically recommending "L'énergie" by Maxime Cordiez and "Relocalisé". He also gives a dual-faced advice for young generations, encouraging them to conform to societal norms to succeed but also to challenge their parents' responsibilities in creating the world of tomorrow despite the difficulties faced by the younger generations.
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