Summary of Daniel Schmachtenberger on The Portal (with host Eric Weinstein), Ep. #027 - On Avoiding Apocalypses

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

In the video, Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses his theory that it is important to avoid apocalypses. He argues that the current system is unsustainable and that we need to learn how to hack social systems in order to transition to a new, more sustainable one.

00:00:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the difficulty in predicting the future of the coronavirus and offers his thoughts on why it might be difficult to develop a clear narrative to guide response.
00:05:00 In the video, Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the idea that the real danger from the KOVAT virus may not be in the number of deaths it causes, but in the deaths of those who could have prevented them if they had been available. He suggests that this is a problem that is being ignored by those in charge, and that it could become much worse if the leadership is not able to shift the blame for the virus's spread to society as a whole.
00:10:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses his theory that it is important to avoid apocalypses, and how Game B, a mythical second state where agents originally built within game A teach themselves to do something far less brutal, may be within the confines of the so-called human potential movement.
00:15:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the possible consequences of various scenarios, including an all-out nuclear war and an environmental collapse. He argues that humanity is not thinking properly about where it is in its history, and that there is a lack of diversity of ideas when it comes to tackling society-wide problems.
00:20:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the various ways in which civilization could self-terminate, concluding that the current system is unsustainable. He suggests that we need to learn how to hack social systems in order to transition to a new, more sustainable one.
00:25:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the need for an ongoing economy of growth in order to avoid apocalypses. He argues that the current linear material economy is unsustainable and that a closed-loop economy is necessary to keep the current trajectory of human civilization going.
00:30:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses how exponential growth in technology and warfare has led to increasing levels of harm in the system. He argues that capitalism and nationalism are to blame for this, and that something needs to change in order to prevent a self-terminating cycle of harm.
00:35:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses exponential technology, which includes things like synthetic biology, gene drives, and computing power. He points out that when technology gets more powerful, we can make more complex choices, such as using violence to solve problems. He argues that if we don't make eye contact with this mystery, it will continue to dog our conversation.
00:40:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the dangers of apocalypses and how technological advances can empower people with psychological damage to be able to do more damage.
00:45:00 In this video, Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses how rival risk dynamics can lead to more harm as we have more power. He also discusses how to avoid this by using asymmetric capacity and Russell conjugation.
00:50:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the problem of externalities in relation to game theory and how they can lead to ethical compromise. He also mentions the potential for a better system that is not self-extinguishing.
00:55:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the concept of multipolar traps, which are situations where an agent gains an advantage over others in the short term but may have negative consequences in the long term. He suggests that we should be aware of these traps and try to prevent them from happening.

01:00:00 - 02:00:00

In the video, Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the dangers of apocalypses and how we can avoid them. He argues that we need to remove rival risk dynamics and optimize the well-being of each agent independently of the others. He also believes that our current system of government is not capable of addressing these challenges, and that we may need to legalize marijuana and make pornography free in order to motivate people to be more engaged in civic life.

01:00:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger, a professor of computer science at the University of Zurich, discusses the possibility of creating a "game B" to avoid catastrophic risks, such as pandemics and nuclear war. He argues that such a game would have to solve for a number of factors, including removing rival risk dynamics and optimizing the well-being of each agent independently of the others. He also argues that our current system of government is not capable of addressing these challenges, and that we may need to legalize marijuana and make pornography free in order to motivate people to be more engaged in civic life.
01:05:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the idea that the market is a precursor to artificial general intelligence, and how it can help to increase efficiency and profits.
01:10:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the dangers of apocalypses, highlighting the importance of avoiding magical thinking in regards to our safety. He argues that we need to return to above-ground nuclear testing in order to better understand the world around us.
01:15:00 The video discusses how a "gated institutional narrative" can cause groups of people to think and act in a harmful way. The narrator talks about how the collapse of civilizations has always been a part of history, but the current situation is different because globalization has made it easier for groups of people to depend on each other.
01:20:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the dangers of institutional decay and how it can lead to corruption. He believes that the loss of knowledge transmission is a key factor in this process.
01:25:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the idea of "split level argument" in which people have different versions of an argument that they can make in public and then have a hidden argument that they keep hidden from others. He discusses how this phenomenon can be seen in the history of the Crusades, during the Victorian period, and currently in the War on Terror.
01:30:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the need for communal sense making and how it's increasingly difficult in a world where information is constantly being spread through disinformation. He also discusses how individuals have little incentive to challenge entrenched institutions, and how this creates a dangerous situation.
01:35:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses how the for-profit media industry uses attention-grabbing content to manipulate viewers and make money. He talks about how scientists and engineers who try to raise awareness of the issue are threatened by the backlash. Schmachtenberger believes that the economy of shame is what keeps the issue from being discussed openly.
01:40:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the suppression of dissent in the United States, focusing on the era of Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan. He argues that the neoliberalism and neoconservatism of the late 20th and early 21st centuries are the legacy of COINTELPRO and other similar efforts to suppress dissent.
01:45:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses how effective small amounts of propaganda can be in discouraging individuals from pursuing ideas that might challenge the status quo. He also discusses how the government has tried to discredit figures like Jean Seberg in the past by discrediting their image. Schmachtenberger believes that there is an opportunity for individuals to start hacking their way out of this narrative, as the current system is becoming more and more repressive.
01:50:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses how the Dunbar limit plays into information sharing and how it becomes increasingly difficult to keep track of and communicate with a large number of people. He also points out how tribes are unable to scale past a certain point due to the difficulty in maintaining communication and coordination.
01:55:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses how Dunbar's number, which is the number of people within a group that a given individual can communicate with, may no longer be a limiting factor in human cooperation. He believes that systems that incentivize sharing honest information will be more successful than systems that rely on competition and corruption.

02:00:00 - 03:00:00

Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses various ways in which technology affects human development and how this can lead to apocalypses. He argues that we can avoid these by dreaming about what might be and by being good stewards of power.

02:00:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses how technology creates new things, and how the process of technology creation is fundamentally different from evolution. He also discusses how markets and reputation systems are likely to be gamed, and how rivalries and cooperation are found throughout nature.
02:05:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger explains how tool making led to an increase in predatory capacity, which in turn allowed humans to colonize and dominate various ecosystems.
02:10:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the evolutionary significance of human technology and its ability to change our capacity without needing hardware upgrades. He argues that this is one of the reasons humans have a long period of neoteny, or embryonic-like development.
02:15:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses how the human condition can be conditioned to do both peaceful and violent acts. Schmachtenberger also discusses how escape from this situation is not possible in a finite world.
02:20:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger describes the potential consequences of a declining population, which could be a result of increased quality of life or greater opportunity costs.
02:25:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the effects of abundance on markets, and how state control of violence may be necessary to prevent them from collapsing.
02:30:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the idea of apocalypses and how we can avoid them by dreaming about what might be and exploring the weird. He goes on to say that rivalries are mostly due to the way our current balance sheets work, and that solving this will require more cooperation and coordination.
02:35:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses how access to resources does not decrease a person's access to other resources, and how this can lead to anti-rivalry dynamics. He also discusses how reducing unique things to a fungible metric can lead to problems.
02:40:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses how technological progress is slowing and how this could lead to an apocalypse. He also discusses how a social system that is able to be good stewards of power would be necessary to prevent a catastrophic end.
02:45:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses strategies for avoiding apocalypses, specifically pointing out that a full-stack civilization of people who are capable and oriented to implement it is the most likely way to escape the multipolar trap.
02:50:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses how the development process could be used to address the problems of violence, coercion, and lack of abundance. He also points out that there are a number of things that we haven't looked at yet in our attempts to scale up these concepts.
02:55:00 Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the challenges of discussing sexuality and sexual sex, noting that the former is often seen as sexy and the latter is seen as central to the world. He says that if we solve all of the problems that don't have to do with status sex and reproduction, we will still have trouble over here. He notes that this situation works, but we need to solve the last little pesky problem.

03:00:00 - 03:30:00

Daniel Schmachtenberger discusses the idea of a high-tech, non-collapsing civilization with host Eric Weinstein. Schmachtenberger argues that, if such a society were to exist, it would require a "positive deviant" approach to evolution, meaning that it would not conform to the standard evolutionary path. He goes on to discuss the benefits and drawbacks of being famous, and how it can be damaging to one's overall well-being. He argues that societies that have healthy relationships between status and authentic human interaction are more likely to be healthy than those with an addiction to hypernormal stimuli.