Summary of 미국증시와 산타랠리의 역사

00:00:00 - 00:15:00

The speaker discusses the concept of the Santa Claus rally in the US stock market and explores its historical patterns and potential factors influencing it. They mention that there has been anticipation of the rally this year due to indications of easing interest rate hikes, but it is uncertain whether it will occur. The speaker also notes that the significance of the rally may not be as strong in recent years based on historical data. Different reasons for the rally are explored, including investor sentiment and economic factors. While there is debate about the effectiveness of the rally, there is still a psychological expectation for a year-end surge in the market.

• 00:00:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the concept of the Santa Claus rally in the stock market. They mention that there has been some anticipation of the rally this year due to statements made by Powell indicating a possible easing of interest rate hikes. The speaker also brings up economic indicators such as unemployment rates and job growth, suggesting that if these factors continue to improve, it could help to stabilize inflation and potentially lead to a rally. However, they note that it is still uncertain whether a true Santa Claus rally will occur this year. The speaker also explains the historical patterns of the rally, including the timing and percentage increase of the market during the rally period. Overall, while there was a temporary rally in the market at the beginning of December, it is still too early to determine if it will continue.
• 00:05:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the concept of the Santa Claus rally in the US stock market. While historically, the period between December and January has shown a tendency for stock indexes to rise, the speaker indicates that the significance of this rally may not be as strong in recent years. They present statistics showing that during the 7 Santa Claus rally periods between 2016 and 2021, the indexes mostly increased, but the average gains were not substantial. Additionally, the speaker explores different reasons for the rally, including retail investors' optimistic sentiment, improved fundamentals, portfolio rebalancing, and tax strategies. Although there is debate about the effectiveness of the Santa Claus rally, there is still a psychological expectation for a year-end surge in the market.
• 00:10:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the history of the Santa Claus rally in the US stock market. He mentions that the concept of the Santa Claus rally was coined in 1973 by a magazine that published data points of market movements over the past 20 years. According to the data, during this period, the market usually saw an average increase of about 1.3% and struggled if the rally did not occur. On the other hand, if the rally did occur, the market tended to perform well. However, the speaker notes that there were exceptions to this pattern, such as in 2000 and 2007, when the market had negative returns despite the Santa Claus rally. The speaker also mentions that the market is currently anticipating the rally after the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting, but warns of the uncertainties regarding the pace and extent of interest rate hikes. Nonetheless, some institutions are already positioning themselves for a potential recession by focusing on long-term bonds in their portfolios.
• 00:15:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the possibility of a recession next year and argues that events like Black Friday may not be able to prevent it. They mention that historically, the US stock market has seen significant gains during Black Friday, but this year it experienced a decline of -0.03%. The speaker attributes this to consumers being hesitant to spend due to the recent economic downturn. They also mention that retail companies typically rely on the holiday season to boost sales and clear inventory, but even with aggressive discounting this year, companies are still left with excess inventory. The speaker concludes by suggesting that instead of focusing on Santa Claus and holiday events, it would be more prudent to pay attention to factors like interest rate policies, consumer sentiment, and inflation.