Summary of Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Stalin, Hitler, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine | Lex Fridman Podcast #289

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00:00:00 - 01:00:00

In this video, Stephen Kotkin discusses Putin, Stalin, Hitler, Zelenskyy, and war in Ukraine with Lex Fridman. Kotkin argues that Putin has long expressed a resentment of the West, which fuels his geopolitics and domestic policy. He also mentions Hitler, who was probably fueled by resentment. Kotkin points out that the Russian government has acted this way for many years before the NATO expansion.

00:00:00 In this conversation with historian Stephen Kotkin, Alex discusses his previous podcast episode with Oliver Stone, in which the two discuss Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine. Stephen provides a comprehensive and critical analysis of Putin and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, drawing on geopolitics and history. He emphasizes the importance of Stalin as a singular figure in Russian history and the dangers of exaggerated comparisons between Putin and Stalin. While Alex is still considering travel to Russia, this conversation makes him even more wary of doing so.
00:05:00 In this video, Stephen Kotkin discusses the dilemma that Russia has faced for centuries: being unable to match the power of the West. Kotkin goes on to say that, in the fullness of time, Stalin lost the peace and putin inherited some of this attempt to reverse it. He also points out that, by the time the 1990s rolled around, Russia had withdrawn from all of its advanced positions from the World War II victory.
00:10:00 Stephen Kotkin discusses the history of dictators such as Stalin, Mao, and Hitler, and how their policies led to mass death and destruction. Kotkin discusses Putin's role in this, and how he may view his own regime, noting that it is not likely Putin will achieve his goals of regaining control over the territories that broke away from Russia during the Soviet Union.
00:15:00 In this Lex Fridman podcast, Stephen Kotkin discusses Putin, Stalin, Hitler, and Zelenskyy, and their attitudes towards war in Ukraine. Kotkin argues that Navalny is one of the most important people in the country, and that Patrushev is a version of Putin's right-hand man. Patrick Chef has been giving interviews in the press recently, and Kotkin points out that his conspiratorial theory is similar to Putin's. Stalin had the same mindset, believing that everything that happened in the world was part of a Western plot to bring down the Soviet Union. Meanwhile, the Germans are voluntarily increasing their dependence on Russian energy, and the French are constantly seeking concessions from the West. The British provide money laundering and reputation laundering services for the Russian oligarchy, and Obama unsuccessfully tries to reset relations with Russia after the Georgian War. Finally, Putin tells Trump that he's right and the West is conspiring to bring Russia down.
00:20:00 In this video, Stephen Kotkin discusses Putin, Stalin, Hitler, and war in Ukraine with Lex Fridman. Kotkin points out that Putin has long expressed a resentment of the West, which fuels his geopolitics and domestic policy. He also mentions Hitler, who was probably fueled by resentment.
00:25:00 According to Russian analyst, Leonardo Leonov, the West spent a lot of resources and effort blackening the image of the Soviet Union. Leonov argues that the West got what it deserved in return, as the Soviet Union collapsed due to its own internal flaws.
00:30:00 In this video, Stephen Kotkin discusses the differences between Russia and Ukraine before and after the invasion of Crimea in February of 2018. Kotkin argues that while Ukraine had some flaws, it was still a democracy, while Russia is an autocracy with a history of murdering journalists.
00:35:00 Oliver Stone argues that the Russian government was forced to invade Ukraine because of the imperialist desires of the United States. Lex Fridman disagrees with this perspective, arguing that the Russian government has acted this way for many years before the NATO expansion.
00:40:00 Stephen Kotkin discusses the history of international alliances and organizations, noting that Russia has signed agreements recognizing the freedom of other countries to choose alliances. He then discusses the Ukraine conflict, noting that while it is not Russia's fault that they are weaker than the West, they do make a strategic choice to pursue a "chemical pursuit" to stand up to the West. He argues that NATO is a defensive alliance, and that the countries who are members are largely pacifists who would not attack one another.
00:45:00 In his latest video, Stephen Kotkin discusses Putin's decision to invade Ukraine in February of 2022. Kotkin argues that the decision was based on miscalculation, and that Putin likely knew that he would be punished for it, but that the consequences were reduced by recalibrating quickly.
00:50:00 Stephen Kotkin discusses the concept of "russian greatness," which he defines as the country's status as one of the world's leading powers. He argues that the failure of the Russian government to respond to challenges head-on, such as during the Ukrainian Revolution, has led to increased dependency on the country by other nations. Kotkin also discusses the concept of "power geopolitics," which he defines as the use of power to achieve geopolitical goals, such as maintaining Russia's position as a great power. He argues that the Russian government's obsession with its own greatness has led to a number of atrocities, including the murder of civilians and the looting of state resources.
00:55:00 Stephen Kotkin discusses how authoritarian regimes can lead to a lot of human rights abuses, including humanitarian crises. He also discusses how Russia and China are inextricably tied to the West, and how the West has to be careful not to forget that Russia and China are also part of the global community.

01:00:00 - 02:00:00

In this video, Stephen Kotkin discusses the history of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the current situation in Ukraine. He argues that, despite Putin's recent territorial gains, the war is still far from being won, and that Ukraine's economy and society are in dire straits. He also discusses the role of Western powers in the conflict, and the potential for further Russian aggression.

01:00:00 Stephen Kotkin discusses Russia's strategy of weakening the west through corruption and division. If the west falls apart, Russia will come to dominate the world.
01:05:00 The video discusses the decline of the popularity of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the reasons for it. It highlights the contributions of the Ukrainian people and the resistance of President Zelenskyy to Russian aggression. It also discusses the efforts of Western nations to support Ukraine, and the president's refusal to flee the country during the Russian invasion.
01:10:00 In this video, Stephen Kotkin discusses how Russian president Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko, and German chancellor Angela Merkel all made mistakes in their dealings with Ukraine. Kotkin believes that Zelenskyy, a reality television personality and former journalist, is the best choice to lead Ukraine in its current war against Russia.
01:15:00 Stephen Kotkin talks about how the 20th century saw a power shift in the world, with Russia, India, and China all playing a role. He worries that this shift could be a "watershed" moment, but it's unclear what will happen next.
01:20:00 In this Lex Fridman podcast, Stephen Kotkin discusses the different ways in which different countries envy and admire the West, and how this creates tension. Kotkin also talks about the challenges of reforming international institutions, and the West's power and hypocrisy.
01:25:00 The domestic civilian aerospace aircraft industry is in big trouble because of export restrictions on spare parts and software. Brazil is a major power in aircraft manufacturing, and did not rush in to condemn Russia's actions in Ukraine. China and India sit back and condemn Russia's actions, but do not join in a full-throated condemnation. Vladimir Putin is continuing the aggression in Ukraine, despite battlefield losses that are impossible to explain away.
01:30:00 In this video, historian Stephen Kotkin discusses the history of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the current situation in Ukraine. He argues that, despite Putin's recent territorial gains, the war is still far from being won, and that Ukraine's economy and society are in dire straits. He also discusses the role of Western powers in the conflict, and the potential for further Russian aggression.
01:35:00 The article discusses Henry Kissinger's opinion that wars in which the U.S. gets involved typically end in disaster, with three examples of this being World War I, World War II, and the current war in Ukraine. Zelenskyy's successful uniting of Ukraine is an example of a successful war that began with great enthusiasm and public support but ended with the country withdrawing unilaterally.
01:40:00 The video discusses the possibility of nuclear war between Russia and Ukraine, and how each side has different methods of launching nuclear weapons. The video also discusses the possibility of tactical nuclear weapons being used in Ukraine.
01:45:00 The video discusses the possible reasons for the recent escalation of violence in Ukraine, and how this could lead to the disintegration of the Russian military. It also discusses the effects of export controls on the Russian economy, and the flight of western executives from the oil industry.
01:50:00 In this video, Stephen Kotkin discusses the similarities between the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 1941 and current events in Ukraine. He explains that while the nazis failed to capture Ukraine, they did manage to occupy it for a time. He also notes that while the current situation in Ukraine is much more complicated than the situation in 1941, parallels can still be drawn between the two events.
01:55:00 The video discusses how partisan or guerrilla warfare resistance was behind Nazi lines throughout the entire occupation of Ukraine, despite the fact that Russia purportedly controlled the territory. If a stalemate were to occur, this could lead to the resurgence of insurgency against Russian control.

02:00:00 - 02:40:00

Stephen Kotkin discusses the potential for war between Russia and Ukraine, and urges listeners to remember that even tyrants and murderers can eventually be defeated.

02:00:00 The video discusses the various factors involved in warfare, including the role of technology, the importance of morale, and the all-volunteer force in the United States. It also discusses the importance of the Ukrainian people in cyber warfare, their skills and preparation, and the support they receive from the civilian population.
02:05:00 In this video, Stephen Kotkin discusses Putin, Stalin, Hitler, and Ukraine's current war. He notes that because Putin is a politician, he is more likely to go to war than other leaders and that this creates a sense of isolation among Russians. He also mentions that because Putin is a skilled diplomat, he has been able to maintain some level of communication with other leaders despite their differences.
02:10:00 The video discusses the history of Russia, Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin, and Petro Zelenskyy, and how their respective policies regarding neighboring countries have led to war in Ukraine. Russia's desire for a sphere of influence that is separate from the west has not been successful, and the blame for this failure is put on the west. China's grand strategy of hostility towards the United States in order to gain access to technology has failed, and Europe has been unable to avoid conflict with Russia.
02:15:00 In this video, Stephen Kotkin discusses how the leaders of Russia, China, and Ukraine all seem to prioritize trade over other issues, such as war or human rights. Xi Jinping's support for Vladimir Putin in the Ukraine conflict may be a sign that he is not as committed to promoting Chinese interests as he once was.
02:20:00 In the Lex Fridman Podcast, historian Stephen Kotkin discusses the potential for war between Russia and Ukraine, China's looming problems, and the increasing trend of democracies around the world. He warns that the current situation may lead to a second World War.
02:25:00 In this YouTube video, Stephen Kotkin discusses the possible outcomes of Vladimir Putin remaining in power. He predicts that Putin will either reach the life expectancy of a Russian male or stay in power for a long time. The main thing to watch about Putin's regime is the FSO, or Federal Solution, which has remained loyal and unbroken. If Navalny can't break this loyalty, there is little chance of an authoritarian regime succeeding in Russia.
02:30:00 Stephen Kotkin discusses Putin, Stalin, Hitler, and Zelenskyy in his latest Lex Fridman podcast. He argues that Putin is surrounded by a "cocoon" of loyal elites, and that Navalny is a huge potential political card that the elites could play if he were released from prison. The biggest question he discusses is what humans are trying to achieve on Earth.
02:35:00 Stephen Kotkin discusses the history of Ukraine, Russia, and World War II, emphasizing the importance of humility and the need to remember that we do not know everything. He discusses the current situation in Ukraine, pointing out that it is experienced by many people in different ways around the world. He urges listeners to remember those who are suffering more, and to continue working to make the world a better place.
02:40:00 In this video, Stephen Kotkin discusses the history of leaders such as Putin, Stalin, Hitler, and Zelenskyy, and how their regimes fell due to human suffering. Gandhi's words are included to remind listeners that even tyrants and murderers can eventually be defeated.