Summary of The 2023 Recession! - Are Markets at Risk

00:00:00 - 00:30:00

The video discusses the likelihood of a recession in 2023 and how to position a portfolio during a recession. The author believes that the market is at risk for a recession due to loose monetary policy and strong inflationary cycles. He recommends investing in riskier assets such as stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin in the face of a potential recession.

• 00:00:00 The video discusses the odds of a recession in the next three to six months, and how to position a portfolio during a recession. It also discusses the potential for a Fed pivot, and how historical data can be used to identify a similar pattern in the very near future.
• 00:05:00 The global credit impulse has fallen since 2021, signaling a possible recession.
• 00:10:00 The author points out that the Federal Reserve has been tight monetary policy, which has historically led to stock market crashes. He also notes that while some indicators are pointing in the right direction, there is still potential for a recession.
• 00:15:00 The author of the video believes that the market is at risk for a recession in 2023 due to loose monetary policy and strong inflationary cycles. He also points out that the past decade was good for those who bet on beta, but warns that this may not be the case in the future.
• 00:20:00 The 2023 recession is predicted to start with an increase in interest rates, followed by a recession, and then an earnings recession. The parallels between the 1999-2000 Dot-Com Bubble and the 2022-2023 stock market crash are alarming. The investor's behaviour in the face of a potential recession is to invest in riskier assets, such as stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin.
• 00:25:00 The speaker notes that although the FED is still raising interest rates, the economy and markets are still going to be a reflection of the monetary and fiscal tightening of 2022. In 2021, the massive rally that lasted all the way to April 2022 or February 2022 was the reflection of the gigantic monetary and fiscal accommodation of 2020 and early 2021. In 2023, your markets and economy are going to be a reflection of the tightening in fiscal and monetary policy in 2022. Therefore, it is important to bear this on the back-drop of your risk management as the key to the next five to seven years is not the thing that is going to last six months or a year and then go away. The speaker has plans for the near future that he is very excited to share.
• 00:30:00 The author of the video introduces himself and discusses his upcoming platform, Macro Compass. The platform offers a range of services including macro reports, macro courses, and interactive tools. The author offers a discount to those who subscribe to the platform.